The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
gm
**MACRO** - Certainly an eventful day yesterday which risk assets did not like as the SPX closed 1.6% lower and NDQ almost 2% lower. The Fed left rates unchanged yesterday as expected but the market was disappointed by lack of aggression on rate cuts. Powell reiterated that he believed that inflation was still too high (the last datapoint certainly didn't help there) and said that a rate cut in March wasn't likely. Tbh, I really didn't think or expect we would see a rate cut in March, especially with the economic data we've seen so far, but the market seemed to be disappointed by that. The thing is, interest rates actually rallied substantially to the tune of about 10bps across the curve, but maybe that was just to do with positioning. All in all, it seems like markets kind of shat the bed yesterday but personally I am not surprised with the Fed's communication and I think people perhaps got a little bit too hopeful for something more promising. Today we get manufacturing PMI and tomorrow we get payrolls so there will certainly be a great deal of importance on these numbers after how yesterday went.
**CRYPTO** - It's the first time in a while I feel like we've seen crypto move with Macro as BTC dropped to 42K and ETH to 2200, while SOL has dropped back down to 96. GBTC outflows were small yesterday, just $188m which is the smallest outflow since the first day of launch, it does feel like to me those outflows are starting to slow in general which is good. My gut says this is probably a good dip to buy here in crypto, in bull markets you get rewarded for buying dips and even though it might not be the optimal point, you should make money as the trend resumes. The thing is BTC was at 39k only recently so I think there is a bit of fear as to how far things can drop in that time which is totally fair. The $JUP launch yesterday was met with some criticism as it started trading at around $7bn market cap but dropped to around $5.5bn after some FUD as to the fact that the team sold about $250m worth of tokens in the open market via their liquidity pool, which ends in 6 days. The thing is, everything was stated and communicated above board but I can imagine how something like that would rub people the long way, especially as teams/investors usually have cliffs and vesting periods before they are allowed to sell. $JUP did not have any VCs or investors but I think the team selling tokens on day 1 is bad form if I'm being honest. What has happened now is that people probably sold memecoins and other things to ape $JUP while the team has sold its supply into that demand, and now that the price is lower they've probably lost money which I think in turn has impacted the rest of the SOL ecosystem negatively.
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GL today!