The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
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**MACRO** - A tough day for equities saw SPX and NDQ close 0.7-1.5% lower, while futures are 0.3-0.4% lower this morning. Payrolls came in at 275k vs 200k expectations while there was a big revision for the month prior. All in all I thought it was a good number and stocks initially rallied before closing the day lower - with regional bank fears still looming. This week we have CPI data...actually it's tomorrow it looks like, with the expectation for inflation to be 3.1% again, which would be unchanged on the month. Core inflation is expected to drop to 3.7% from 3.9%. IMO if we hit these numbers, or indeed come lower, market rallies in a big way. The absolute best thing for the market rn is strong payrolls and low inflation...goldilocks scenario.
**CRYPTO** - Price discovery for BTC sees a whopping 72.2K now....insane! ETH/BTC remains at 0.056 resulting in ETH climbing and holding above the psychological 4k barrier to 4050, while SOL is flirting with 150. I guess we are due for another big inflow number today in ETFs! One thing I would note is that funding is getting very heated once again and I think there is risk of another liquidity cascade. The pattern at the moment seems to be that big ETF inflows drive prices up, after which leverage monkeys FOMO in and then inevitably get rekt on big wicks down before we resume upwards. One thing I am worried about here is the ETH ETF; commentary from experts/journalists seems to be increasingly negative and the odds of an approval on Polymarket have fallen to 25%. I do think CT is a bit complacent here and if we did get a rejection we would see a rather large sell-off in alts...something I'm not sure people are prepared for. Just something to be aware of and something that I think will increasingly take over headlines...some food for thought there.
**NFTs** - Matt Furie's ‘Peplicator’ took most of the timeline's attention last few days as it hit a high of around 0.35ETH from a 0.05ETH mint before dropping back to 0.17ETH. Elsewhere most collection seem to be in the red, with BAYC now dropping to 16ETH and MAYC to 2.5 ETH. Ordinals seem to have cooled off as NodeMonkes have fallen to 0.43 BTC while Puppets are down to 0.17 BTC...both down about 40-50% in the last week or so, perhaps as a result of the mega rise in BTC/USD.
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GL This Week!