The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
gm
**MACRO** - A flat day for stocks yesterday and futures are opening a tiny bit lower this morning. With everything htat's been happening in crypto, I think cross-asset participants have lost sight a little bit on macro and it's important to acknowledge the fact that we started the year with payrolls higher than expected AND inflation higher than expected. That is not a good combination, and imo it eliminates any possibility of the Fed signalling earlier rate cuts this year, and increases the risk that we get a slightly more hawkish Fed. The good news is that interest rates didn't really move much, but yeah at this point in time it just feels like there has been an increase in risk while we sit at very close to ATHs on many risk buckets.
**CRYPTO** - Personally I thought yesterday's ETF volumes disappointed. It sounded like there was about $4bn total that traded which was across all of the ETFs. Half of that was GBTC (so it could have been people rotating out of it), and then next highest was Blackrock's IBIT which just breached $1bn. It means that the rumours of Blackrock pumping in $2bn didn't come to fruition, or at least they didn't do it on day 1. We needed a single NEW ETF (so not GBTC) to breach $2bn to break the record and tbh we didn't see it. Don't get me wrong, these volume numbers were incredible, but part of me feels like CT expectations were a lot higher and we didn't get it. With this in mind, and the next positive catalyst being ETH ETF in May, I'm feeling a bit more cautious here. I think there's a 50% chance we see a pullback from here on profit taking, and a 50% chance we keep grinding higher. With that in mind I think it's reasonable to take some profits here (especially for 2022/23 DCAers) but maybe to the tune of like 10-20% or something and leave some good skin in the game because I think there is still a strong chance of seeing crazy returns.
**NFTs** - It's not looking pretty in ETH as Apes have dripped to about 23ETH while Mutants are down to just 3.9ETH. It sounds like there a tonne of loans on Blur at the moment that are underwater in the Yuga complex and as a result we're likely to see a lot of defaults and potential hangover effect from that if lenders don't want to own the assets. On Solana Froganas continue their volatility dropping 32% overnight, while Saga Monkes have also pulled back from their recent run, droppping by 27%. Mad Lads seems to be the Pudgy Penguins of Solana and are holding stable at 167SOL. Ordinals also giving up some gains with a few favourites droppping off a decent amount, notably Bitcoin Puppets and Bitcoin Frogs. Node Monkes have ended their steep 7-day decline by posting a solid 7% return yesterday taking its floor price back up to 0.184 BTC.
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GL today!