The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
gm @everyone
**MACRO** - So yesterday's headline inflation number came in at 3.7% vs 3.6% expectations while core came in line at 4.1%. That makes inflation flat vs last month. Markets didn't really love the number despite it only being a narrow "beat" and we saw interest rates sell off a decent amount taking the curve to 505/466/466/482bps across 2/5/10/30y. Equities didn't really love it either and ended the day in the red having had a decent week given everything that's going on; closing down 0.6% on SPX and down 0.4% on NDQ. Futures are opening a small amount lower this morning while oil is up 3% back to $85. We now await the FOMC which will conclude on 1st November. There is some growing expectation they could hike again given strong labour market numbers and inflation staying stubbornly flat, I think the probability for a hike at the next meeting has grown to about 40%. It's interesting when the probability is around that level because it does create some vol for the interest rate decision as well as the press conference.
**CRYPTO** - Not holding my breath but it *feels* like we may have seen a local bottom here with ETH and BTC rebounding ever so slightly to be at 26.8K and 1550 this morning. Sentiment feels horrific again and that usually means it's a good time to buy but of course selling strength has been a winning strategy for the second half of this year. Remember that today is the last day the SEC has to appeal the Grayscale decision. I presume there is some time deadline maybe it's midnight EST today, so if we don't see anything filed then I'm sure some headlines will start to hit the tape that they did not appeal which I think is a small but important win for crypto. I would expect some price relief from that but nothing crazy. WRT ratios there hasn't been much movement either way with ETH/BTC still holding in at 0.058 and BTC dominance hovering around 50.9%.
**NFTs** - It appears to be a sea of red across the pfp scene today with things down about 3-5% across the board, no real notable movers imo but it's impressive to see Refik's WoY hold a 6.9ETH floor although it's off the highs. Something that seems to be dominating the timeline a bit yesterday was the announcement of prizes for Yuga's 6th Season of HV-MTL, for which the top prize was some $APE worth just over $4k. I think people were naturally a bit disappointed with that for multiple reasons. IMO for that complex to succeed it truly is all in on Otherside; these ancillary games won't move the needle much (even though I do believe Dookie Dash was a success) but there's only so much you can achieve at this level.
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Think that's it for this week, GL!