gm
**MACRO** - We ended the day down about 0.5-0.6% on stocks but futures are looking very tasty this morning up 0.7-1% on SPX and NDQ respectively. Rates still hanging out there at very close to their YTD highs. IDK what it will take to get them lower; probably some strong commentary from JPOW but that won't happen without a change in trend of economic data. Was funny reading about all the comment on stagflation yesterday...idk if people know what the definition of stagflation is but it's certainly not +1.6% GDP growth, +3.5% inflation, +3.8% unemployment lmao. The bears coming out kind of makes me feel a bit more bullish again, it's as if people *want* to see things lower from here in order to get another bite at the apple to buy risk. We could well move lower, but my expectation is that a Trump win, which seems most likely at the moment, is going to be a very positive for markets. Also don't forget in his Presidency he was often a vocal caller of low rates.
**CRYPTO** - We seem to be off the lows a bit this morning with BTC at 64.2K and ETH at 3130..sol still hovering around 143. ETH has actually held up ok relatively in the past few days and indeed ETH/BTC and SOL/ETH have been going in the direction that favours ETH. Memecoins had a little dip along with the rest of the market but we are seeing some reasonable bounces there. ETF data was not good yesterday, with there being $218m of outflows. This follows the $121m outflow we saw the day before, with Blackrock's IBIT not posting any inflows for two days in a row now, the first time we've seen this happen since inception. NGL that does kind of worry me a little bit; there are two wasy to look at it I think. On the one hand, slowdown in ETF flows sucks for BTC price action, on the other hand the fact that BTC is still holding up well despite that I think is pretty promising. It does feel like we don't really have many good crypto catalysts to come though; ETH ETF feels like it's not happening, halving has passed..I'm not sure what event we are looking forward to other than the notion and narrative that we're in a bull market and things will keep going. Every smart person I follow on X seems to think we will keep going, and I do so too, but it feels like a left curve thesis here and it's hard to find specific reasons.
GL today