Market Update: Fri 26th Jul

Crypto rebounds after a bloody week in stocks

gm

**MACRO** - It's been a torrid week for equities with Wednesday seeing the largest decline in NDQ since October 2022, and yesterday was not great with SPX and NDQ closing 0.5% and 1% lower respectively, but it's nice to see fuures start in the green today reversing all of yesterday's losses. Interest rates haven't really budged much but with PCE data today we may indeed see a bit of volatility. All in all I'm mostly focused on next week and I do really believe the data we've had in the past month should be conducive to the Fed being more dovish but we'll just have to wait and see if it actually plays out that way or not...I've certainly been disappointed the last few times.

**CRYPTO** - A strong bounce overnight after what was a weak session in line with Macro; it's clear that crypto wants to outperform here and I think this Sunday is going to be the main event everyone is hoping for (Trump speaking at Bitcoin Nashville). As it stands BTC is at 67.2k, ETH at 3240 and SOL at 179; of course, ETH is the big underperformer here with ETH/BTC dropping further back down to 0.048. It looks like we had another outflow out of ETH ETFs yesterday...so the total net outflows since launching have been $179m. The only saving grace here is we've seen a $1.2bn outlfow in ETHE which means they're already 1/8 of the way through their total holdings; it does feel like at this pace we could see ETHE depleted within a week, after which it'll be interesting to see if inflows still persist...which if they do it could start to become pretty meaningful for ETH. To me it feels like this is kind of like the "last hope" so let's see and hope, because if we don't see inflows rolling in it feels like to me we see a lot of money leaving ETH.

GL today