*The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.*
gm
**MACRO** - Stocks had another red day yesterday closing 0.3-0.5% lower while futures are lower again by a similar magnitude. To make things worse, interest rates have risen a decent amount ahead of today's payrolls number with 10Y now back to a 4 handle, sitting at 4.05%. Today we have payrolls, and I guess it'll be important for setting the tone to kick the year off; it seems like markets are evidently a little bit nervous ahead of the number. 170k is the consensus and we are hoping for that number to come in modestly lower to give the Fed a kick up the arse. I think it's been a quiet return for macro this week but expecting things to pick up from next week onwards.
**CRYPTO** - There have been a lot of rumours that the ETF approval could happen today although the jury is still out of course. BTC pumped to 44.5K yesterday with alts recovering meaningful losses, but we seem to have taken a bit of a bath this morning with things meaningfully lower again. It's a weird one because the setup is quite clean now, funding very low and OI down a lot. It means that positioning and sentiment is cautious ahead of the decision which I think is a good thing should we get an approval. I still think we will rally but it's curious that the markets aren't trading that great atm; is it because CT has a different opinion of likelihood to the rest of the world? I don't really know tbh, CT can often be a bubble. If you're around today we have Eric Balchunas (Bloomberg ETF analyst for the last 24 years) coming on FOMO HOUR (@fomohour on X) to discuss everything ETFs which I think will be one of the best shows yet given its current relevancy. My guess is that post the headline we still see BTC lead, then IF BTC can sustain its levels we will see a big catchup in alts, memes etc, and if it can't hold then I think we could see a decent pullback across everything given how much of a run we've had. I'm generally bullish but I'm cautious about chasing high-beta here at the moment, and I still feel like ETH is one of the best risk/reward things out there atm.
**NFTs** - In ETH land we saw two Ringers trade for 75ETH each, while most pfp collections shed a little bit of steam on continued quiet volumes. I don't see any particular big movers. In SOL Tensorians have climbed 7% to north of 100 SOL, marking an 86% move higher in the past 30 days. Tensorians are the NFT project of the Tensor marketplace which is due to have a token, so I tihnk there is some thought process that there could be a potential airdrop there. Elsewhere NodeMonkeys climbed yet another 12% in ordinals to get to 0.27BTC and that seems to be the hot project there at the moment that dominates my timeline.
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GL today!