The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
gm
**MACRO** - Alright finally some macro mania...we kick off with payrolls for which the expectation ins 200k vs last month's 353k. We've had two big beats in previous months and of course this means less pressure on the Fed to cut rates and as a result we've seen a rather large move higher in interest rates today. It looks like the market is pretty risk on going into this number with rates falling further, down to 4.07% on 10Y. Equities had a strong finish yesterday ending 1-1.5% higher and we're yet another 1.3-1.4% higher in futures today so it's a very risk-on sentiment going into today's number. IMO the best number is probably something that's broadly in line, of course another big beat would send rates higher but it feels like equities are able to weather those storms at the moment. We will have inflation next week and I think if both of these numbers come in hot there is some cause for caution wrt interest rate expectations.
**CRYPTO** - Strong price action this morning with BTC up to 67.3K and ETH getting ever so close to the magical 4k number, currently sittng at 3942. SOL was on a rampage yesterday and almost touched 150, currently sitting at 146. I'm bullish on all three of these coins - if you don't want to be in the trenches the easiest thing to do at the moment is just hold this stuff and close your eyes. Memecoins had a weaker day yesterday but are back up this morning with PEPE, WIF, DOGE, BONK, SHIB all up about 20-30%. You tend to see more activity in memecoins over the weekend as there's no ETF flow to create BTC volatility, and I suppose the average working person will have more time to spend on the weekend to degen this stuff too. We had almost another $500m ETF inflow yesterday and that music simply just keeps going. If we have another big day today I really think we can retest and break through ATHs on BTC and have another unilateral crypto rally with funding having cleaned up a lot, so long as it stays that way. Let's see!
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GL today and remember to touch grass this weekend!