The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
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**MACRO** - Payrolls on Friday came in at 199k vs consensus of 180k, so stronger than expected. Markets seemed to like the number which resulted in both the S&P500 and Nasdaq making their highest closing levels since early 2022. As you'd expect, interest rates sold off a little but not by a huge amount, with 2Y at 4.75% and 10Y at 4.27%. Risk assets seem to like the fact that the US economy remains stronger than expected, which gives the Fed more of a leeway to keep rates high if they need to...the thing is...they may not need to if inflation does indeed keep going lower and this paradigm would make it much easier-than-expected for them to secure a "soft landing". We actually get CPI tomorrow, and the expectation is that inflation dropped to 3.1% from 3.2% for November....if we hit that number (or lower) you have to expect a further rally in stocks IMO because it's another month of evidence of lower inflation and strong economy. The FOMC also starts tomorrow and ends on 13th, so it's going to be a big couple of days.
**CRYPTO** - After some very strong price action we finally saw a massive puke yesterday in which something like $250m of levered longs were liquidated. The funny thing is we "nuked" down to 42K on BTC, which is still a decent amount higher than the range we saw a few days ago. I think it's expected to see clearouts of levered longs as we go higher and the moral of the story here is you're fine with spot longs but have to be very careful on leverage. After having a bad run on getting liquidated on levered longs I was seriously thinking about making a comeback yesterday and then I realised I was really glad I didn't because I def would have got liquidated in that wick. I do think it's possible to make a lot of money just being in spot, and you have a much higher probability of doing so tbh. My thought is that all dips still get bought here and it's probably best to time them on bit liquidation cascades. Personally I do think if we see a good inflation number tomorrow and a dovish Fed on Weds, it should feed into crypto...even if it doesn't immediately it will have a very positive medium term impact.
**NFTs** - Pudgy Penguins hit highs of 12ETH yesterday before falling back to 11ETH after they announced PudgyWorld which appears to be a gaming verse and has fuelled more speculation of the team dropping a potential token at some stage. Speaking of which, we Creepz are up another 23% to a floor price of over 3ETH on similar speculation given the upcoming launch of $PORTAL. The other big NFT headline this weekend was that of Rug Radio to merge with DeCrypt, creating a big media power house for web3. We saw some interesting sales and price action with an account liquidating an Autoglyph to sweep Little Pudgies, the same person who liquidated Fidenzas to sweep Pudgy Penguins. I think we are going to see a lot more of this kind of behaviour as people try to chase what they perceive to be will be big near-term returns.
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GL today!