The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
gm
**MACRO** - Stocks finally took a tumble on Friday ending down 0.5% and 1.2% on the SPX and NDQ and futures are starting the week unchanged. Oil continues to rise steadily and is up to $87 now as tensions in the Middle East continue to weigh on the market, while the interest rate curve appears to have steepend with 2Y marginally higher to 5.07% and 10Y about 8-9bps higher to 4.69%. In terms of data there's not a whole lot to look out for at the moment with the next big event for me being the FOMC on the 1st November which will be swiftly followed by payrolls. As a result I would expect to see a bit more crabbing of equities. Worth noting we are just about to enter earnings season again so keep an eye out on some of the bigger reporters as they can often sway the market.
**CRYPTO** - BTC had a strong weekend and starts the week approaching 28K, recovering all of the losses we saw in the past few days. ETH has only seen a modest bounce to around 1582 which takes the ETH/BTC ratio to 0.057, while BTC dominance has surged higher to 51.4%. We just had a mega green candle up for BTC about 3 hours ago from the time of writing and the pump so far seems to have held; but I'm curious to see how that changes once the US gets in. As expected, on Friday it was confirmed the SEC would not appeal the Grayscale decision, we saw a mini pump on the news then a quick sell off...so maybe there's a delayed reaction to that. My guess is that in the next 48H we either see BTC retreat or we see ETH/alts catch up because it's been quite a marked move in BTC this morning. Wrt SEC stuff, although we don't see anything major in the price rn I do think it's a big step towards the probability of ETF approvals increasing. They would have to come up with a different reason now to reject it, which is entirely possible, but it seems rather unlikely unless it's compelling and given how badly they've failed in court cases you have to wonder whether they are willing to risk spending more resources there.
**NFTs** - The biggest mover overnight is Refik's WoY which are up 71% in the last 24H after Machi swept a tonne of them to lift the floor price up all the way to almost 14ETH. This comes after all the pieces have finally been revealed and WoY is certainly on the tips of everyone's tongue at the moment as having potential to be one of the iconic art pieces of 2023. Elsewhere we see a strong performance in Gutter Cat Gang which is up 30% to a floor price of 1.08 ETH, this marks a 200% move in the past 7 days after ownership of the project changed hands to a community member. On the whole it does feel like a few pfps are in the green this morning, I wonder if it's in anticipation of Blur Season 2 ending...I'm not sure, but if farmers leave the market I think there's an aspect of collecting turning more fun again and perhaps we see a return.
GL today!