The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
gm
**MACRO** - A timid start to equities sees SPX up 0.2% and NDQ unchanged. We are currently 1.6% off all-time highs for the S&P 500 and I have no doubt that we are going to breach through it at some stage in the next few weeks, probably this year. Interest rates have sold off a little in the past couple of sessions which takes 2Y to 4.4% and 10Y to 3.9%. My expectation is that we should continue to see rates trend lower next year but it will certainly be data dependent and we need to see inflation stay in the current context (or lower) with payrolls presumably expected to finally weaken. The next big datapoint we will get is payrolls on the first Friday of Jan, so I expect the next couple of weeks to start to get very quiet especially as we head into the holiday period. I would imagine people will want to position ahead for next year but there is much less of a "buy weakness" mentality rn and it's more of a "I missed the rally...should I buy now?" feeling.
**CRYPTO** - Def seeing some weakness today with BTC down to 41K and ETH to 2140. There's been a decent pullback across alts which all appear to be about 5-10% lower across the board. We saw $BONK surpass a $2bn mkt cap over the weekend after Binance followed Coinbase in listing it, but we are back down to $1.8bn FDV and $1.1bn circulating. That move has definitely spurred a rally in the Solana ecosystem with plenty of memecoins on that chain making some big moves, notably WIF (dogwifhat) being the next thing to pass a $100m mkt cap. The action was not limited to SOL, with COQ (the main memecoin on AVAX) also breaking $100m while the Injective chain saw a whopping 10k new wallets over the weekend as a result of people wanting to purchase the only memecoin on its platform, $NINJA. Right now the meta feels like buying the main memecoin(s) on each chain that's not Ethereum lol, and in the last 2.5 years of being in crypto I've never seen a moment where the focus couldn't be even less on ETH. Personally I am not bearish on ETH and I think it is due a big outperformance vs BTC, but if we have a major rally next year one would imagine higher beta things could outperform. I think Ethereum is still a front runner from a technological standpoint but other chains are at an earlier (and more exciting stage of their life cycle) which is why we are seeing what we are at the moment.
**NFTs** - NFTs on ETH have been in decline over the past few days with BAYC down to 26ETH while Pudgy Penguins have fallen back down to 9ETH. There has been at least one day where Tensor (a Solana NFT marketplace) has done more volume than Blur. Tensor has an airdrop coming while the strength in Solana has given SOL NFTs lots of momentum of late and continues to draw more participants. I believe the NFT market is still quite small with regard to the number of users at the moment, so it does feel like higher attention in one ecosystem comes at the cost of attention in the other. I also think we've seen a lot of selling of ETH NFTs as people attempt to unlock liquidity to degen on other things that are bright and shiny at the moment. I do believe Ethereum will come back in vogue but while it is out of fashion I do believe there is a risk that ETH NFTs continue to drift lower as people continue to make large gains elsewhere in crypto.
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GL this week!