Market Update: Mon 19th Aug

Calm before the storm..?

gm

**MACRO** - We now enter deep summer, with there not really being much to look out for in these last two weeks of August. We'll have PCE data on 30th August and then first week of September we'll get the all important payrolls which I expect to be a high volatility event given the print we saw last month. Equities are slightly in the green while rates have interestingly been edging higher. I think things are basically going to be very quiet for the next two weeks but then it truly is all hands on deck especially as there'll be just 2 months left until elections. Speaking of it does look like the Trump Harris gap is narrowing once again and it'll undoubtedly be a close call.

**CRYPTO** - The underperformance continues with BTC at 58.2k, ETH ad 2570 and SOL at 142. Many memes and alts continue to slide lower and it really does feel like a point of max pain and frustration for everyone involved really. I know I've been sounding a bit more conservative recently but taking a step back it does feel like we could be poised to correct to the upside again in the last quarter of the year. We are going to see a series of rate cuts which imo has to have some sort of effect; it's just a battle against the huge supply overhang right now on BTC and whatever go digested on ETH and SOL (and whatever there is left to sell). It's almost as if we need to just last 3-4 weeks more of this chop and then things start to get interesting again. It's low volume low liquidity summer vibes all round rn and I feel like that's just not a good environment to make any big risk decisions..I feel like we all ought to go touch grass for 2 weeks and come back with a fresh mind in Sep.

GL today!