gm
**MACRO** - We had a pretty tough end to the qeeek for equities as SPX closed back below 5K while NDQ dropped a big 2%. Futures are seeing a small bounce this morning. It's pretty incredible how muted the market reaction has been to the Iran-Israel conflict. Stocks have moved lower but nothing major, while interest rates have remained extremely elevated (10Y still at 4.65%) and oil down to 3-week lows of $81. It's certainly not the price reaction you would think to see in a time of geopolitical tension and it suggests that the market is probably just turning a blind eye to what's been going on...hopefully it's not out of complacency but recent history will tell you that these types of headlines are indeed ones to buy. The next big macro thing we're looking out for is probably the FOMC which does not conclude until 1st May.
**CRYPTO** - We had the halving over the weekend and it does appear to have brought about some strength across crypto with BTC oscillating around 66K and ETH up to 3200. SOL has staged a decent recovery as well climbing back above 150. I personally think the halving itself doesn't mechanically make a huge difference at this stage but past cycles have shown us that BTC does stage a strong rally in the months after. The fear about this cycle is that it could be one that is "left translated", ie, we've already seen the rally because of ETFs. I think that may be partially true but I think we definitely have more upside price action to come and we've just been through a period of consolidation which is only natural for any market. ETF flows last week were benign, funding at the moment is incredibly low or negative in som spots but OI is ticking back up which suggests there is a lot of gross risk in the market. My expectation is that at some point we will be able to break out of this range and progress to higher levels, I'm not sure when it happens but it may take some time. I think if SOL can achieve some stability here we are likely to see another run on memecoins. We saw Runes launch over the wekeend and the timeline seems mixed as to whether they offer any real improvements vs BRC20s. I do think there was a lot of hype going into it so maybe it's been a bit of an anti-climax but it's probably still early days there.
GL today