The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
gm
**MACRO** - Having closed unchanged on Friday, futures are looking tasty this morning up 0.5% and 0.7% respectively on SPX and NDQ. Interest rates have jumped back higher following their EoW rally which takes 2Y back to 5.09% and 10Y to 4.62%. It's pleasing to see the price of oil cool off a little as WTI retreats back to $91/barrel. This week is an important one as on Friday we once again get non-farm payrolls. We also get PMI today which is also pretty important; it's expected to come in at 47.7 vs last month's 47.6 and we'll be looking for low numbers there for interest rates and subsequently markets to rally. I feel like now that we're at the end of the hiking cycle, market is should be [even more] sensitive to economic data. For payrolls, it's expected to come in at 158k vs last month's 187k at the moment which I think would be the lowest level we've seen for a long time. It *feels* like that leaves a lot of room to the upside but we shall see.
**CRYPTO** - Well "Uptober" has started off with quite the bang as BTC and ETH are at 28.5K and 1740 at time of writing having seen a big God candle overnight hold. What's causing this move? Well tough to say really. Allegedly $400m of BTC shorts and $200m of ETH shorts were wiped out, which brings me nothing but joy (sorry if you're one of them but I feel like it's socially and morally acceptable to rejoice in the blood of short selling). Of course, we expect a bunch of ETH futures ETFs could be approved today, VanEck, Bitwise, Proshares, Valkyrie, Hashdex and Vol Shares. While this is expected and should be "baked in", it feels like the mass approval of these could hit mainstream news and get a lot of press which could act as a "buy the news" event....feels kinda weird as this year has really been about sell the news but at some point that paradigm can change. I'm not saying this is it, but there's certainly a chance. On the flipside it looks like more spot BTC ETFs were delayed so I'm fully expecting those to happen next year now. One thing I would say though is look at the price action we're seeing on these ETH futures ETFs...that should be enough to tell you that we WILL rally on BTC spot ETF approvals and the rally will be much harder. Still so bullish for 2024.
**NFTs & Misc** - Incredibly it's been a rather impressive past 24H for NFT prices as pretty much all of the top 20 are currently sitting i the green. Notably, BAYC is up 10% to a FP of 26.6ETH. It's worth noting that an AIP passed recently to use the treasury's $APE holding to sweep 1000 apes so maybe something to do with that. The entire Yuga ecosystem looks like it's up overnight tho and I have to say it's rather nice to wake up on a Monday morning to see ETH up and NFTs up...a rare occurence. In the world of FT it looks like TVL has finally passed $50m while volumes look mostly to be flat. It sounds like users keep growing. IMO I'm getting a bit cautious there; I think it's fine to use trading fees to buy keys and build a portfolio to harvest the airdrop, but if you're briding ETH I think be a little careful because at some point the liquidity is going to disappear completely and you don't want to be the last one standing at the bar. The other thing I'm confused about is how all the people building up a strong "FT reputation" will go about liquidating/monetising their portfolios as inevitably it's going to piss people off at some stage. Again, if you haven't bridged a lot of ETH you probably don't care, but if you have, you probably do...
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GL today!