The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
gm
**MACRO** - A strong close on Friday saw stocks end 0.6% and 0.3% higher on SPX and NDQ, but futures are giving up about half of those gains this morning. Interest rates have climbed a decent amount today but saw a big rally on Friday; we're currently at 462/419/425/442bps across 2/5/10/30y. I still think the whole curve trends lower from here. The big mover in commodities has been gold which spiked to above $2100 setting a new ATH...pretty crazy and the change in interest rate outlook will certainly help this price action. This Friday we have payrolls which will be important, I think a low number would take stocks to further YTD highs and egg on a continued rate rally so here's hoping that's what happens, but if course we could also "miss" higher. It should be a vol event for macro. Things gonna start to get interesting now next few days.
**CRYPTO** - Welp where do I start...BTC breached 40K last night when I went to bed and then further breached 42K this morning, while I think ETh almost touched 2270 before dropping back down to 2240. I know last week I said I thought we would keep grinding higher into year-end but honestly I think 42K would be the year-end level and we'd just see a gradual ascent, I didn't think it would gap there in basically a day! We are starting to get into the retail FOMO territory imo it's quite clear that normies are re-entering the market and I think larger wallets/funds are front-running that flow. Where do we go from here? I'm not sure, I guess we keep trending higher but my opinion is that you should start to see a bigger alt rally if risk keeps on. ETH/BTC is still at 0.054 but ETH has outperformed SOL significantly in the last few days, my bet is we can seriously see a sustained ETH rally to 3k and to see it by the end of the year is not out the question. BTC dominance is at a whopping 54.3%, pretty much at the highs of the year, as such I think continued risk on means we see other alts start to outperform. That's probably the trade here. We saw a big rally in memecoins yesterday with $PEPE hitting as high as 0.000015 (up about 30%) which is the highest level it's been in about 3 months - as you probably know I'm pretty bullish on memes and I think this is a sign of how much this stuff can move. Gonna be a fun few days.
**NFTs** - As if things weren't good enough already, we saw a rather epic NFT pump yesterday with volumes hitting local highs. Many collections are up anywhere between 30-50% as Pudgy Penguins lead the charge climbing to almost a 10ETH floor, up 100% in the last month. It's truly incredible to see a huge ETH rally combined with a huge NFT rally which tells you the market is risk on right now and seeking beta. I've long thought an NFT rally would lag a crypto rally but it appears I might be wrong as the price action on NFTs to me suggests that they are ready to rip and it feels like to me many people would be underexposed to such a rally.
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GLHF this week!