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**MACRO** - We had a strong finish to equities on Friday which closed 1.3% and 2% higher respectively on SPX and NDQ, this came after what feels like the first payrolls miss we've had in about a year, with the number coming in at 175k vs 243k expectations and 315k last month. As you'd expect, we've seen quite the rally in interest rates with 10y now down to 4.51% having traded at even lower yields on Friday. Why is the market rallying? Well it's another sign of the economy's growth perhaps slowing (after the weaker than expected GDP print) and as a result it means the thought of rate cuts are back on. I still see people talking about stagflation and imo that's not yet on the cards. It's important to note that the US is not in a recession; far from it. It is not correct to say the economy is slowing on these numbers, perhaps economic GROWTH is slowing. As a result it does give the fed ample time to act should they need to and it will certainly now be on Powell's mind. An interesting piece of this puzzle will be inflation which we get on 15th May, so next Wednesday. The best thing would be for that to come in low, then there's a real case for cutting rates, but if inflation comes in high I think that's where the stagflation narrative starts to grow and markets could actually sell off. We're at an interesting point of inflection here.
**CRYPTO** - Very strong price action over the weekend which continues into this morning with BTC hitting 65.3k, ETH up to 3200 and SOL tickling 155. ETF flows were quite something on Friday with a $380m net inflow, the first inflow in about 8 days...the crazist thing here though is the fact that GBTC actually had a 63m inflow! I'm not entirely sure what happened there but it certainly comes as a bullish surprise. It's nice to see crypto resume its path upwards after the blood bath we had in the last few days...once again, holding your nerve and recognising we are in a bull market once again remains undefeated. I still think we have some ways to go but you def want to learn from any mistakes made int he past few months I would say and not repeat them this time round. It is imperative to have a big core position of something you truly believe in that is "guaranteed" to go up when the entire market does. Worst-case scenario is to be stuck in a random uncorrelated asset that doesn't move. Elsewhere I continue to be extremely bullish on Blast spending most of my allotted degen time it. I've been building a big position in $PAC. My biggest wins in crypto have come from "getting on board" with a big narrative and locating the high-beta play within that and putting on a big position on it and riding it. In 2021 that was ETH -> NFTs -> BAYC. In December it was Solana -> memecoins -> WIF (and I still think that can run). I don't know whether Blast can be as big a narrative as those, but I do think it has some great mindshare and I think the best beta within that is $PAC, so betting heavily there. Another thing I would say is that owning $PAC allows you to participate in Blast's gold jackpot, and it actually won the first jackpot on Saturday. That equated to about a 30-50% "dividend-like" payout for every $PAC holder depending on your estimates for gold. If you haven't been Blast-pilled yet I'd highly recommend it. A good resource is entering a District One "Space" and you're more than welcome to join ours: https://districtone.io/space/3261?inviteCode=X9RII4
GL today