The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
gm
**MACRO** - Well, we saw payrolls come in a decent amount below expectations on Friday (150 vs 180) and not only that, but last month's payrolls was also revised lower to the tune of about 100k. What does this mean? Well, weaker economic data means that the pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates resumes, especially in an environment where inflation continues to trend lower. The last few weeks and months have been much of a "higher for longer" narrative wrt interest rates and I think as soon as we start to see that shift, there could be some spicy price action across all markets. The next thing we have to look forward to is CPI once again which we will get on 15th November, so next week. Stocks liked the payrolls numbers and ended the day up 1-1.2% and futures are a touch higher again this morning, while interest rates seem to have held their rally, with the curve actually steepening a bit (2Y at 487bps and 10Y at 459bps). I think with a low inflation number we could be set for a strong end to the year in macro.
**CRYPTO** - Not much fireworks over the weekend but the big outperformer has finally been ETH which sits just below 1900 while BTC is at 35.2K. This takes the ETH/BTC ratio to 0.054, from it's lows of about 0.05. Hmmm if only there was a daily newsletter where someone told you that ETH looks extremely cheap here! TBH I think this move can continue; I feel like we're now at the stage where it technically starts to correct the underperformance but we're not yet at the FOMO stage which is when it will rally aggressively. That IMO can still come with a catalyst such as BTC ETF finally getting approved or Blackrock applying for a spot ETH ETF. In any case, I continue to like ETH here as quite an "easy" play relative to other coins. We're also seeing BTC dominance cool off substantially with it now dropping to 52.8% having recently seen highs of north of 54%. As I've mentioned in the past, I think the flow of events is BTC rallies first, then ETH catches up then alts catch up aggressively and we see a true altseason; we are not quite there yet but I think the signs are there and I do think you want to make sure you have some sort of an allocation to altcoins. In my head, you want to just generally be long crypto right now, the BTC ETF headline will come literally any day in the next 75 days and you don't want to have to chase that pump.
**NFTs** - NFT price action is a bit lacklustre over the past few sessions with no large moves in either direction. As I'm sure you've seen, there was a Simpsons "NFT" episode which was pretty cool and will no doubt bring some renewed focus to NFTs but I'm not sure if it will have a meaningful impact at all. There was a "Springfield Punks" mint which was a free drop that ran to a 0.4ETH floor. Been a while since I've seen an NFT project catch fire like that. We saw Doodles rise by 15% on a recent burntoast tweet hinting that they've been working on something big that appears it's due to release soon. Finally, it appears Yuga Labs is teaming up with Magic Eden to contractually mandate royalty payments on their ETH marketplace. I think that will def be interesting, especially for a behemoth like Yuga Labs where whent hey drop new collections people will certainly want ot trade them. My guess is over the next few months you start to see a lot of "contract upgrades" to incentivise people to move to new contracts that block non-royalty paying marketplaces. Let's see if it works, I think the TL is bearish on it but I can see some probability of success.
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GL today!