gm
**MACRO** - Strong close for equities post payrolls on Friday which once again came in ahead of expectations at 300k vs 200k consensus; we closed 1.1% and 1.3% higher on both SPX and NDQ. Rates of course did not like the number and 10Y is now all the way up to 4.46% which is a new YTD high for that yield. Futures this morning are unchanged. This week we will get CPI data which is to be released on Wednesday. At the moment the expectation is for inflation to increase to 3.4% vs 3.2% the previous month.
**CRYPTO** - A rather strong start to the week sees BTC at 72.3K with ETH following suit up to 3650. I'm not really sure what's specifically caused this crypto strength but it's good to see it happen before we have ETF data...I suppose of course by this part of the data some of the numbers will be out and I'm expecting either a small outflow for GBTC, or a big inflow for IBIT/FBTC/ARK or a combination of both. Also worth noting there was some research out from JPM suggesting that they do expect an ETH ETF to eventually be approved, although the probability of it happening next month remains low. It's also the BTC halving in less than 2 weeks and my expectation is we see a gradual rally into that too. The laggard here is SOL as network congestion has rendered it more difficult to use as it falls in the various usage metrics vs its competitors. Assuming this is something that can get fixed, my guess is that SOL is probably a good buy here as it sits at 180, having been above 200 only about a week ago. I think we're set to see some good price action once again this week; hoping that we can break out of local highs on a few things.
**NFTs** - Feels like more of the same trends here really as ordinals are completely off to the races with Runestone, NodeMonkes, Blob Army, RSIC, OMB all up about 25% while Bitocoin Puppets are the 24H laggard, but are up 55% in the last 7 days. ETH NFTs all seem to be unchanged or lower; we saw the lowest Zombie Punk sale in ETH terms yday of around 300ETH while there was an autoglyph sale of about 145ETH. It's been a very tough period for gen art with Fidenzas now also sitting at a meagre 39ETH floor. I'm not sure yet if it's the bottom or not for ETH NFTs but the pain continues to grow and one has to ask themselves at which point is it worth stepping in.
GL today