The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
gm
**MACRO** - Well, we didn't get what we wanted from payrolls with the number coming in at around 215k vs 170k expectations, once again quite hot which shows the lingering strength of the US labour market. As a result we saw a pretty decent sell-off in rates, with 10Y now back out to 4.07%. It is worth mentioning that there was some weak ISM Services data which caused rates to rally again, but that rally was ratehr short lived. Equities had their first day in the green but only just, ending about 0.15% higher while futures are unchanged to start the day. This week will be another big week of data with CPI data coming on Thurs 11th, amazingly the same day the BTC ETF is slated to start trading. That is expected to come in at 3.3% vs 3.1% last month...as usualy would be good to see it come lower.
**CRYPTO** - This will be one of the most exciting weeks in crypto history. It looks like BTC ETF approval is slated to be done by Wednesday. IMO markets don't really care atm about an approval as it appears to be a foregone conclusion. Maybe we see a big wick up but I think that gets sold down. What will be more important is day 1 volumes. I think the record right now for day 1 ETF volume is like $2.2bn or something and there are rumours of Blackrock ready to pump in $2bn - basically if we smash records I think that's incredibly bullish and that could be the thing that will get us back towards ATHs. It's just a question of if we see those volumes or not, but I believe there is a good shot. ETF fees are close to zero but the lowest fee on spot BTC ETF will be 39bps (Fido atm) which is like 10x what these guys usually make. So these lads have every incentive to pump it. If they do well, the next thing people will think and talk about is the ETH ETF and they will be pushing for an early approval. Remember, the SEC lost to Grayscale in court for the convertion of their BTC futures to spot ETF, so by that logic, given there is an ETH futures ETF, the spot product stands a very good chance of being accepted. I think that focus will mark a revenge rally for ETH and I think we see ETH/BTC above 0.06 later this year. It feels like the first part of this week's rally, if all goes well, would be led by BTC, and alts have already started to be a bit shaky although they have staged a recovery this morning. It's going to be very volatile.
**NFTs** - Someone swept like $1m in Azuki or something which spiked the floor to about 8ETH, but we've since dropped back to 6ETH, still up 20% on the week. The rest of ETH NFTs seem to be drifting lower, notably with BAYC now down to 25ETH. SOL NFTs also seemt o be drigting a bit lower, maybe in line with the weakness we've seen in SOL. Most 7-day price action is down about 10-20%. Mad Lads are holding in well at 155 SOL. I've seen a lot of focus on Ordinals in the past few days and I think they've performed the best in the past 7 days but we're also experiencing 1-day red moves with NodeMonkes down to 0.237 BTC and Bitcoin Puppets down about 15% to 0.0174. Fun times!
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GL This Week!