Market Update: Mon 9th Sep
Tide is turning imo
gm
**MACRO** - So payrolls on Friday once again came in weaker, at 142k vs 160k expectations, but what may have spooked the market a little was the revision of lat month down to just 89k. We've consistently had weakening labour market data now in a backdrop of falling inflation and it's just a question of how aggressive the Fed once to be here. Remember, their base rate right now is 525-550bps...there is A LOT of room for the Fed to cut aggressively if they need to and what has me on alert is if economic data drops off substantially, they can start to get punchy if they need to. For the last few weeks it's felt like bad data is bad and good is good, but I think depending on how dovish JPOW is at next week's FOMC sentiment could really shift. Everyone is too fixated on next week's 25-50bp rate cut being priced in, and not focused enough on what the next 12-18 months of monetary policy looks like after we've just been through 2 years of rate hikes. This, coupled with a potential Trump presidential win I think is enough ammo for an extended run - but it's predicated on data going the way we want it and JPOW saying the things we want to hear.
**CRYPTO** - Following on from above I just simply think crypto is extremely oversold here. That's not to mention Trump's odds have been rising over the past few days. I think it's important to realise, for the timebeing, we're not playing what actually happens after Trump wins and whether he implements crypto policy - I am still skeptical as to how fast the US can make BTC a reserve currency and buy BTC etc...it's more just about expectations changing over the next few weeks into a potential victory. As such, I'll repeat what I said last week in that I think this is a really good spot to buy. Although I bought BTC last week I'm looking to get further down the risk curve again; for me memecoins have been a great play this cycle but the last few months have been challenged due to over-saturation. With that in mind I don't want to touch anything on SOL but I think the likes of PEPE/MOG on Ethereum look interesting as coins that have been around for over a year with strong communities that don't suffer as much from cannibalisation. I think SOL itself could be an interesting beta play here too. On paper ETH has dramatically underperformed but I am too scarred to get meaningfully long there. I think the next few weeks are gonna be interesting, worth getting locked in again.
GL