The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
gm
**MACRO** - Big day today as we get the first CPI of the year. Inflation for the month of December is predicted to be 3.2% vs last month's 3.1%. Core inflation is expected to drop to 3.8% from 4%. As always, if we hit these numbers or come in below it will be very bullish for markets as it increases the probability of earlier Fed rate cuts. Equities are looking strong at the moment having climbed by 0.6-0.7% yesterday on both SPX and NDQ and are up another 0.2-0.3% today. Interest rates look pretty stable to me with no big move either way.
**CRYPTO** - So we finally got the BTC ETF approval as expected, and today will be the first day of trading. BTC hasn't really moved that much from the news, it's kind of up smalls to 46.2K while ETH seems to be the strong outperformer climbing to a whopping 2610 today with ETH/BTC rallying even further to 0.056. That's a whopping 17% move against BTC in the space of just a day basically which is truly astonishing given their market caps. You know my view, I think the narrative shifts to ETH and we are seeing that happen pretty much immediately post approval. Today is important because we will see trading volumes for all the ETFs, I'm looking for them to take the number 1 spot on day 1 volumes and then I think we truly hit some big mainstream headlines especially with the price action we are about to see here. IMO we are on the precipice of silly season where things are about to see crazy price action and I wouldn't underestimate how high things can get. I think given how much ETH and ETH betas/memes have lagged in the last 3 month we are due a massive catch-up there. We've already seen it with L2s such as OP and ARB, and I think we're about to see it with memes too; notably PEPE moving about 20% higher yesterday but still remains below levels it hit even in December. I think I started this news letter at the beginning of 2022, so if you've been following on for the last couple of years I've talked extensively about DCAing during the bear market so you have the right position for the bull - it's oddly a hard thing to do but if you managed to do it then congrats because it will put you in a brilliant position right now where you are already very long and your challenge is figuring out when to sell, not FOMOing random stuff to get exposure. Kind of crazy to see a whole cycle play through!
**NFTs** - NFTs are quiet atm and I think focus is on fungibles but I do expect the market will come back so important to keep an eye. If we look in $$ terms, BAYC and MAYC have fallen further while Pudgy Penguins and Azuki continue to climb. Ordinals have bulled back a decent amount today and SOL NFTs seem mostly unchanged. IMO there is a massive cost of capital being in NFTs atm because there are plenty of fungible tokens that will do well with much greater liquidity, it's hard to get your money in and out of NFTs at a good pace. There will be a time where NFTs rise and see a big bull market but I think it's later this year.
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GL today!