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Market Update: Thu 16th Nov
Feels like no ETF approval until Jan...
The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
**MACRO** - Mostly a quiet day in markets with stocks down a slight amount having had a monster run in the past few days. I guess natural pullbacks are expected. Interest rates are definitely on the move lower though with 2Y down to 4.83% and 10Y down to 4.45%, while oil is down about 4-5% to $73.70. What's next? Well I think the next big data point we are looking forward to is probably payrolls which should be on 1st December. After that we will get the FOMC 12-13th December which marks the last FOMC of the year until 25-26 January 2024, so it will certainly be an important one in terms of setting the tone for coming months. My gut says we can have a year-end rally in risk assets but needless to say it will indeed be data dependent.
**CRYPTO** - So yesterday it was announced that the SEC delayed Hashdex's ETF application which seems to imply the most likely scenario now is that we don't get any decision on approval until the Jan 10th deadline for Ark. Interestingly we saw a massive pump in crypto as a result with BTC hitting almost 38K and ETH to 2080...for some reason the market seems to *want* a long period before any approval and I guess the thought process is in that time no one wants to sell or short so things can continue to grind higher in the "buy-the-rumour-period" before we get the eventual news. Or at least that's my take on it...but despite that prices have dropped again today with BTC back down to 36.5k and ETH momentarily dropping below 2K. My guess is we will continue to be choppy here but with an upwards trajectory; great for spot positions yet tough for leveraged positions. Alt L1s continue to do well with SOL and AVAX leading the charge.
**NFTs** - Not a lot do add today; looks like most NFT prices are rather flat with volumes pretty quiet at the moment. Creepz by OVERLORD have done well recently with multiple things being teased over the past few days including a fashion drop and a potential game which appears to feature a Playstation controller. Pudgy Penguins continue to hold firm while Mad Lads are quite the talk at the moment on SOL as they climbed to almost a 100 SOL floor and thus eclipsing DeGods in USD value, which is pretty incredible. Remember, we are 4 days away now until Blur SZN 2 airdrop and while I think many farmers will be net down on that trade, it is still going to act as somewhat of a liquidity injection into the market.
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