The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
gm @everyone
**MACRO** - Stocks went from bad to worse yesterday closing about 1.3% and 1.4% lower respectively on SPX and NDQ. What is truly ugly right now however is interest rates though with 2Y making new highs of 5.25% and 10Y threatening to break the 5% level, currently at 4.98%. Economic data continues to be a factor here as US retail sales came in stronger than expected and as a result it gives the Fed a bigger licence to maintain the "higher for longer" narrative. It's a weird one because we're entering Q4 this year with rates substantially higher and stocks substantially higher; most people would have told you that the two in conjunction would not be possible, yet here we are. I think there is a cohort of people who believe stocks *should* see a big backup given what's been going on with rates etc; but at the end of the day, the US economy is displaying significant strength, all while the Fed has been able to raise rates and thus combat inflation. Maybe the AI/tech narrative is the stronger factor in economic productivity and as a result we do have a unique paradigm where a soft landing could be achieved. It's just a question of if the economy does eventually crack as a result of high interest rates, and if the Fed can act fast enough to save it from a deep fall.
**CRYPTO** - BTC strength at current prices is impressive with it currently holding in at 28.4K while ETH has dropped to 1554, taking the ratio to 0.055. BTC dominance has risen to new highs of 52.3% and all the focus right now feels like it's returned to ETF headlines. There are now 83 days until the 10th January when the SEC must make its final decision the first spot ETF application from ARK...now that that number is sub 100 it doesn't feel that far away and each day that passes by I think speculation and hope will intensify. It feels like being long BTC here is a positive theta trade to me (ceteris paribus) and it becomes a question of whether you're meant to sell the news or not. Personally I think Blackrock and Fido are gonna realise they can crush it so much on ETF fees that they will be aggressively pumping BTC on the timeline and it can truly start off the next crypto bull run. I still have faith. Of course, all of this depends on whether the SEC actually approve it all, they could choose to reject it but you have to think it would be the end of Gary should he be faced with more court cases.
**NFTs** - In NFT land not really much to write home about in terms of price action with most things +/- 5%. It's been interesting to watch the price action on WoY which have now fallen a further 7% to 8.9%, almost 50% off their recent highs. Nice to see Rektguy make the top 20 in volumes yesterday as we concluded our 5th Rekt event since launching. I hope the hangovers this morning aren't too bad. In the art world we saw Patrick Amadon sell a new 1/1 to the mfers creator Sartoshi for 10ETH. Seems like a lot of continued activity in the art market which is nice to see and I'm curious if we will see another "art bull run" in coming months, would be nice!
GL today!