The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
gm
Probably just going to talk about crypto until year-end unless there is something specific to say on macro or NFTs.
Yday we saw ETH breach new YTD highs of around 2450. It was the clear outperformer as ETH/BTC climbed 5% to around 0.056 while SOL/ETH dropped about 15% to 0.042. The price action to me feels very "hot-potato-ish", that is, it appears to be the same pool of capital that is rotating between tokens. In a way that's bullish because I think it means we haven't seen the real institutional or retail influx yet, when we do, everything will move higher unilaterally across the board, rather than certain tokens going higher and others going lower. To double down on my caution from yesterday, funding rates are still very, very high, particularly on SOL which now costs over 100% a year in funding. As a result we are seeing the price of SOL drop, now down 20% from its recent highs hovering just above $100. I think the ideal situation for spot enjoyoors would be a wipeout of this leverage prior to any ETF decision, and then I think we would rally post that decision. If it doesn't happen, I would expect that headline to be a sell-the-new event. But yeah we have now seen a couple of days of negative price action in the market's favoured longs, while ETH, the thing that everyone lost faith in, is the only thing that has rallied along with its betas. So I would be wary of consensus positioning for now and I think the best trade at the moment is to have spot longs in majors with some powder dry to buy dips on alts.
GL today!