The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
gm
**MACRO** - A rather strong day for macro yesterday which saw SPX close 1% higher and NDQ 1.8% higher with futures up 0.5-0.7% again this morning. We saw a massive interest rate rally post FOMC which now sees the curve at 496/464/472/490 across 2/5/10/30y with 10Y in particular really ratcheting lower in the last couple of sessions. As expected, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged although they did leave the door open for further potential hikes this year, although it seems that will be data dependent. The press conference was actually somewhat mixed; in general they seemed to think there was still a lot more work to do on getting inflation lower to 2%, however there was some acknowledgement and encouragement around the fact that wage inflation was slowing, and JPOW seemed less concerned about labour market dynamics than in previous conferences. On the whole, I think it was perhaps "not as hawkish" as maybe bears were hoping for and thus we are seeing a bit of a short squeeze in macro. Another thing to mention is that the price of oil continues to trend lower and we're now down to $81.5 on WTI which is also an encouraging move. I think if payrolls come in line with expectations tomorrow we can probably expect a big market bounce.
**CRYPTO** - Yet again strong price action in the past 24H as BTC clipped almost 36K and has now settled at 35.5k, with ETH hitting as high as around 1875 before settling to 1840 area. The ETH/BTC ratio continues to be stuck at 0.052 where it has been for a few days and my timeline right now is max frustration on ETH. I will simply repeat what I've said in the past; I think narratives often follow price action and as soon as you see ETH correct people will start talking about ETH ETFs etc etc. If you came into this market with zero risk, you would look at how ETH has underperformed vs both BTC AND SOL, knowing that there is going to be chatter on spot ETH ETFs ont he TL how would you not long ETH here? It's definitely been a bad trade so far this year (in terms of relative return) but throwing the towel in here is silly imo...there is just going to be a moment when ETH just rips and everyone will FOMO in at higher levels. If you feel like you've missed this pump and are looking for a laggard, ETH sticks out like a sore thumb to me. We saw SOL hit 14-month highs yday and I think a lot of that has been due to short squeeze (OI on SOL increased by 27% yday). On the whole I'm glad to see higher prices continually hold despite the choppiness...feeling excited about the rest of the week!
**NFTs** - Price action across pfps looks mostly flat to me if not a little lower which is OK given ETH is higher and it's encouraging to see these recent floor price rises hold. We saw another Skulls of Luci exchange hands yesterday for 75 ETH as Sam Spratt's elusive ecosystem continues to turn heads. Keep an eye out for XCOPY today as his RarePass drop gets distributed; the collection is called REMNANTS and it looks like they are all at an identical pre-reveal state. This follows his "algobro" drop which is his first piece stored on chain, which reached a floor price of 10ETH having initially launched at 2ETH. I believe it's also ApeFest in HK starting today so be on the look out for any surprise announcements there.
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GL today!