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**MACRO** - Stocks are showing a strong rebound today with SPX and NDQ up 0.8-1% respectively, while interest rates continue their stability at this newer local high, with 10Y around 4.35%. Yesterday we heard Powell speak and he mentioned that it was too soon to judge whether inflation has stabilised and that they would need more time and see it trend towards their target rate of 2% before cutting rates. Interestingly it seems the market still prices roughly a 60% probability of rate cuts in June, that probability of course had been reducing and to me with the current economic data we are seeing I find it rather unlikely we get a rate cut in June unless things meaningfully change or there is some weird conspiracy to do it ahead of elections. Fed really is in no rush and has a lot of ammo to play with, but yeah it just feels like there really is no need to cut at the moment and they would rather see certainty and confirmation that inflation is headed in the right direction, especially given how strong economic data has been coming in. Tomorrow we get non-farm payrolls which will be another bit indicator, at the moment it looks like it's expected to come in at 200k vs 275k last month.
**CRYPTO** - Things are looking good this morning with BTC up to 67.8k and ETH approaching 340, while SOL continues to do well hovering at around 187. Yesterday we had a $113m net inflow into BTC ETFs and the thing that's worth noting is the GBTC outflow in the past couple of days has been substantially lower. It takes the total inflows since inception to a new high of $12.2bn; it's pretty astonishing to think what price impact that has had on BTC, especially when many estimates for the year's total inflows ranging between $40-80bn. When I think about it that way it does make me feel extremely bullish here and we may just need a case of zooming out and ignoring the day-to-day noise. Worth noting that funding is also looking extremely clean right now having ticked up a few days ago, indeed we must have had plenty of liquidations over the past 48H. All in all it looks like we could see a bounce here it's just a question of whether it sustains and what it would take to break out of this channel; feels like we've been seeing sort of a 65-70k range on BTC for now with a lot of volatility in alts.
**NFTs** - NFTs continue to be red for Ethereum projects as BAYC, Azuki, DeGods and MAYC are all lower in the last 24H with moonbirds posting a pretty brutal 30% decline down to a floor price of 0.52 ETH. In stark contrast, Ordinals have posted a massive gain today with NodeMonkes up 11% and Bitcoin Puppets up 33% after some large whale buying within that ecosystem. It certainly rubs more salt in the wounds of the ETH NFTs vs Ordinals battle and I'm not sure what changes or breaks that until ETH sees some real sustained outperformance vs other chains. Indeed, the fabled ETH ETF is what much of our hopes may rest on...good luck.