The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
gm
**MACRO** - Yesterday's ISM data was strong as PMI came in at 47.4, above the expected 47.1 level. Despite that, we didn't see a big move either way in interest rates which remain at 4.32% on 2Y and 3.94% on 10Y. Stocks took another beating yesterday ending 0.8% and 1% lower on SPX and NDQ while futures are showing a very modest recovery today to the tune of about 0.1-0.2%. Still a very quiet start to the year but things will kick off tomorrow with payrolls, which is forecast to come in at 170k compared to last month's 199k. Once again, we are really looking for that number to be lower than expected as I believe it will alert the Fed to be more aggressive with rate cuts which in turn I think causes markets to rally. I believe we are back to the "bad is good" narrative for economic data.
**CRYPTO** - What a crazy day yesterday as BTC wicked as low as 40.5K after a random research house called MatrixPort changed their view to suggest that the ETF applications will be rejected. IMO it was less about the report and more about the fact that leverage was high and positioning crowded coming into the new year, and I think that move would have happened regardless of the MatrixPort article. North of $500m of OI got wiped out yesterday which is healthy, and all headlines from "real" sources suggested that ETF approvals are on track. After the clean-out yesterday I am definitively more bullish on price action post an approval. The main question for me now is what will rally and what will lag; it feels like to me it could be a BTC led rally in the first instance, and then I think the favoured L1s at the moment such as SOL, AVAX, INJ and SEI will see a big catch-up. I'm confused about ETH but I actually think it's demonstrated a lot of strength in the past few days and wouldn't be surprised to see that stat to outperform as people get bulled up on ETH ETF narrative right after.
**NFTs** - Our website Degenz.Finance now displays NFTs for SOL and Ordinals so be sure to check that out! ETH NFTs remain quiet with no big price movers to note yesterday, or any big sales. In Solana, we saw Froganas take a bath, down 40% to a price of 10 SOL, while Mad Lads continue to climb, up 17% to almost 170SOL. For ordinals, NodeMonkes continue their domination of the timeline as they climbed 20% to get to a floor price of 0.25BTC, flipping Bitcoin Frogs in the process which are down 25%. The narrative on ordinals at the moment seems to be "which collections are the earliest and first" which I think is OK, but personally I haven't seen anything there that is exciting from a cultural or art standpoint that ALSO fits that narrative. Definitely keep watching that space though.
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GL today!