The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
gm @everyone
**MACRO** - A very powerful close for macro once again yesterday with SPX and NDQ both closing around 1.8% higher although futures are a touch lower this morning. We saw a big rally in interest rates post FOMC and that has held for the most part although I do see 2Y creeping back up towards 5% while oil has bounced off its lows. Today is important as we get payrolls. The consensus expectation is 180k, I think we are looking for that number to hit or come in lower to see probably quite a big market rally in both stocks and interest rates. If we come in materially higher (like last month) then of course it may have the adverse effect. Recent economic data has had quite a big vol impact on markets in the past few weeks so I would expect this could potentially be the same.
**CRYPTO** - A bit of weakness overnight sees us back down to 34.1K on BTC and 1785 on ETH. The TL is starting to feel a bit frustrated to me which is funny because we've seen quite a big rally in crypto in the past few weeks but I guess memories are short. It's tough to judge where we go from here but I think it's impressive we've held up this well. I suppose ETF headlines could literally hit any day now so there is a lot of FOMO of not wanting to miss the pump or be under-risked. I think we can continue to trade in this channel for a while, possibly even break a bit lower but if we do that will certainly present a good dip buying opportunity. Altcoins definitely took a hit yesterday too and SOL is back down to $38 having hit highs of $47 earlier. I do believe SOL outperforms ETH in a bull run, (just beta) so it'll be interesting to watch that ratio, which has climbed from 0.014 at the beginning of the year, to a high of 0.025 and now back down to 0.022. For context, that ratio was 0.055 at the peak of the 2021 bull market, so it gives you an idea of how much more potential outperformance there could be. Personally I'm still waiting for the ETH ETF tailwind, after which I think it's worth monitoring that ratio to look at SOL.
**NFTs** - Well the biggesst news is the $MEME token airdrop from the Memeland ecosystem which is currently trading at an FDV of about $1.3bn, surpassing most people's expectations by quite a long way. This is great to see as it will certainly create some riches to our NFT and degen ecosystem; given the token launched on Binance I have to assume the buying demand has come from lots of outside money which is good for us. As expected Captainz and Potatoz NFTs have dropped about 30% which is actually less than I thought; I think anyone who was in that trade has done pretty well. It's a question now of whether we see that money go back into NFTs or shitcoins or somewhere, it looks like most NFT floors are down today with BAYC dipping back below 30ETH but I would imagine it would have a delayed effect. It's curious to see this perform well and of course we have more $BLUR airdrop coming soon too...I wonder if we're back into a paradigm where airdrops start to trade well again. Don't forget there's a Metamask one looming too.
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GL today!