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Market Update: Tue 14th Nov
The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
**MACRO** - A quiet day yesterday for stocks saw thing close marginally lower, whil futures have recouped those losses this morning. Interest rates seem to have drifted lower and we're now at 503/465/461/473 across 2/5/10/30y. Today we have CPI at 8.30 EST and I think it should cause some market vol. As I mentioned yesterday the consensus is for 3.3% on headline inflation. Should the number hit, this would mark the first decline inflation since we dropped from 4% to 3% from May to June. It would also mark the third lowest inflation print we've seen in over a year. Psychologically 3.3% is going to be a good number for markets IMO but that's IF we hit it and perhaps there is a lot of room to be disappointed. I will repeat though that lower inflation + lower payrolls is a match made in heaven for rate cuts and although we've hinted at it at times, I think we need to see a trend form there before the Fed acts fast enough.
**CRYPTO** - We lost a little ground yesterday with BTC falling back to 36.5K while ETH has held up much better at 2050. It does look like OI has started to drop across the board a little bit and funding rates becoming less negative. It seems there were about $156m of liquidations in the last 24H. There was a notable outperformance of ETH vs BTC yesterday and at one point I think the ratio hit 0.058 before settling back down to 0.056. As mentioned yesterday there is some probability of an ETF approval this week but it hangs in the balance and I see some industry experts on Twitter saying it's more likely to happen in January. The question is, if we don't get it this week, do we sell off? Tough to say, IMO all dips get bought in this market until January so while we might see a wipeout of leverage, that will undoubtedly present a good buying opportunity.
**NFTs** - Price action seems to be more on the red side yesterday with most things losing steam posting 3-5% losses in pfp land. What has really performed well are Memeland assets given the huge 40% pump we saw in $MEME yesterday taking it to new ATHs. Elsewhere Orkhan's Muraqqa continues to hold up well maintaining a 5.5ETH floor since mint. Crytopunks also continue to hold onto their recent rally with the floor managing to maintain just under a 60ETH floor. We saw a new $3M bid for an Alien punk...while that number maybe seems "low" vs other sales I do certainly think it's somewhat of a bull market indicator. Finallay I think it's worth mentioning that SOL NFTs have done pretty well given the recent SOL pump, we saw some activity in Bodoggos over the weekend while MadLads has been the main big performer; it makes you wonder how well DeGods and y00ts would have done had they stayed on SOL.
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