The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
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**MACRO** - Equities conitnue to do well as the SPX and NDQ closed marginally higher yesterday, albeit off their highs, while futures are unchanged this morning. Rates have barely moved, and to be honest there's not much more to add here as we still remain about a week away from the FOMC.
**CRYPTO** - OK it's starting to get quite ugly here with BTC having fallen to 38.9K and ETH to 2210. BTC dominance is starting to rise, clmibing to 51.6% as alts sufffer a big hit today. The biggest culprit right now is GBTC, which so a $640m outflow yesterday, its biggest thus far. That marks $3.5bn of outflows in the past 7 days. This has now reduced the total net inflows from ETFs to $820m from its high of $1.2bn. Although we only saw a very small net outflow yesterday, it is clear that the pace of GBTC outflows is picking up while the demand from the others is stagnating. It's not very usual of me to feel more bearish after a 30% drop across the board, but I am worried that we are going to continue to see significant $GTBC outflows after those who were able to buy it at a huge discount last 2 years are now able to monetise it. GBTC still has $21.5bn in assets and at 1.5% it charges the highest fees by a long way compared to other ETFs. My fear that we see continuous outflows which hurts BTC and thus hurts the whole market. Fundamentally I am constructive for this year still but it's really really tough to ignore such a huge supply of BTC coming to the market every day, without knowing when it will stop. It's important not to underestimate how far things can call; BTC is up 30% in the last 6 months and many alts are as much as 5x higher. My gut says we are meant to have liquidity to DCA lower, and to at least consolidate positions to things that you have conviction on and can stomach lower moves for. I sincerely hope that GBTC outflows stop, but I'm just not sure why it would randomly stop here.
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GL Today!