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**MACRO** - So we actually had ISM manufacturing data yesterday which once again came in very got with PMI at 50.3 vs 48.4 expected. It's yet another indicator that the US economy is strong, and thriving, which is great, but obviously causes concern on the inflation side of things and means the Fed can really be in no rush about having to cut rates. Indeed we saw 10Y push back out to 4.3% while stocks didn't really much a bunch, and are also opening unchanged today. It seems like for now strong economic data continues not really to move equities but causes rates to sell off as the market re-assesses their expectations of when we could expect cuts. Maybe we're just in this new paradigm of strong economic growth coupled with high interest rates that can be sustained...why can't it be?
**CRYPTO** - We had a big GBTC outflow day yesterday to the tune of $303m and as a result we ended the week with a net outflow of $86m. Remember, a lot of GBTC is forced selling and thus I don't think those flows are affected by a holiday weekend, whereas I think the demand side of the equation is...let's hope so anyway and see what this week brings. Crypto didn't love the numbers and BTC had fallen to 66K and ETH to 3338, while SOL is back down to 183, so some decent 5-7% moves lower in majors now since the weekend. Memes and alts have followed suit with -20% and even bigger moves lower in the low cap stuff so it's certainly looking and feeling a bit bleak out there. Once again, it is a little worrying how levered we get to ETF data at times but I think in any bull market you are expected to have these 20-30% pullbacks. The question is, do we get a larger, 50% pullback? The answer is I'm not sure and it's impossible to know really; it's why it's important to take profits along the way so you have ammo to buy these big dips. Don't forget, it's also Bitcoin halving in just over 2 weeks but I don't expect this to have big price action although we may rally into the event and sell on the news. What's perhaps bigger is ETH ETF next month but maybe it's not even bigger as the whole market really expects it to get rejected which is the most likely outcome. For me it's staying long and strong in spot conviction right now and looking for that bigger move up to take some more profits.
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GL This Week!
The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.