The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
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**MACRO** - A weak day for equities saw SPX and NDQ close 0.5% and 1% lower respectively, while futures are pointing down once again this morning. We've certainly seen a little bit of a pullback from last week's strength. Interest rates haven't budged much and remain in a similar territory to yesterday, while oil and gold seem to have had stable too...all in all another quiet macro day. The consenus number for payrolls this Friday at the moment is 185k but this will change leading up to the date. Last month was 150k. I think anything sub 200 adds to the slowing trend and obviously if we come in below interest rates are poised to rally. The thing is we keep seeing the massive occasional beat and there is always a chance of that...honestly the best combination is probably slowing inflation and high payrolls because it shows a soft landing narrative, but I think it will certainly confuse the market.
**CRYPTO** - Honestly I'm impressed by the strength in majors as BTC sits at 41.7k and ETH above 2200; basically the Sunday pump we saw has held over 48 hours and it's quite clear that all dips are getting bought. The performance still seems specific to majors as many alts are lower or unchanged in the past 2 days apart from memecoins which seem to have moved. Honestly I'm struggling to decide what to do here from a short-term perspective, the most obvious thing is to have big spot positions and hold but it can often be quite boring and often degen needs must get satiated...but the volatility right not is extremely high to be able to maintain leverage and thus my gut says just hold as big spot positions as you safely can and enjoy the holiday period.
**NFTs** - Astonishingly the gains from yesterday seem to have held for NFTs with no large pullback across the board. We saw yet another FlamingoDAO sweep which comprised mainly art but also included some pfp collections such as Azuki, CrypToadz and SupDucks. It's certainly keeping the morale in NFTs very high and I think gives meaningful hope that the market has seen its lows and has the potential to participate in a broad-based risk rally next year. I wasn't sure if NFT prices would ever return to their ATHs but after seeing this action I think it's a possibility; you have to remember the NFT market is tiny with respect to crypto which is tiny with respect to traditional markets, so it only takes a small amount of capital to create crazy price action, especially when people are focused on only a few collections. Consider something like an Autoglyph or a Fidenza where there are only 512 or 999 in existence with a smaller freefloat; you literally just need like 2 or 3 motivated buyers to get that market moving aggressively, and I think there are people out there motivated enough to do that.
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GL today!