The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
gm
**MACRO** - Stocks were slow to start the year but yesterday we saw a very strong day as SPX closed 1.4% higher and NDQ a whopping 2.1% higher. That was accompanied by a small interest rate rally which now sees 10Y at 4.05%. Thursday's inflation number is going to be the thing of importance this week; currently expected to climb to 3.2% vs last month's 3.1% while core expected to come in at 3.8%, lower than last month's 4%. Keep an eye on these consensus numbers as they can often change as we head into the date. Been thinking a lot about what we want to see from macro markets for crypto to go higher. Correlation often felt like it broke down last year. It's easy to think "higher stocks should mean higher crypto" but that's not always the case. Human psychology is that if you own an asset that keeps going higher, you feel zero impetus to sell it (sound familiar?). Thus, seemed like there wasn't much rotation out of stocks into crypto last year as investors prob didn't wanna leave a performing asset. Perhaps what we need is stocks to stay flat, or move higher at a very slow pace. This would cause investors to move further down the risk curve in order to chase returns. Now that we are likely to have many liquid spot BTC ETFs it'll be easy for equity investors to rotate to bitcoin to gain crypto exposure, if they start feeling the FOMO of being in flatlining stocks vs pumping crypto. TBH stocks could still have a good year, but the NASDAQ closed like 40% higher last year, I struggle to think we'll see the same this year. Think it's very bullish for crypto.
**CRYPTO** - So it looks like things are on track for the ETF. We saw a bunch of S-1s get filed today, the SEC returned with some comments it seems and Blackrock has already re-filed its amended S-1. BTC hit 47K last night as ETH climbed to 2350, and we saw a decent reversal in many alts after they took a beating a couple of days ago. As it stands ETH/BTC is at 0.0492 which puts it at 18-month lows. My expectation is that we probably see BTC outperform this week on various announcements but the attention will very quickly shift to ETH. If you're Blackrock and you crush it on this ETF, you'll for sure be wanting to hurry up the process for ETH. However successful this ETF is for BTC price action, a decent chunk of that tailwind must be translated to ETH as well IMO. You might be thinking, "it can't be so obvious, otherwise everyone would do it". Well, Blackrock applied for the ETF in June of last year, that's more than 6 months ago, and in that time BTC has almost doubled...you can look back now and say it was pretty fucking obvious yet many people will have missed out. I think ETH is in the same paradigm right now.
**NFTs** - ETH NFTs not doing that great as most things seem to be shedding a further 2-3% across the board on quiet volumes. On Solana, Mad Lads continue their ascent higher, climbing a further 10% to hit a price of 170 SOL. Froganas continue to dominate the top volume spot, but have experiences a 10% drop overnight, marking a 50% drop in the last 7 days. Ordinals continue to be very active and increase their domination of the timeline. Bitcoin Puppets have taken the number 1 volume spot with the floor rising 58% overnight, up 170% in a week. Elsewhere Bitcoin Frogs have climbed 16% while NodeMonkes appear to have dropped 17% as there clearly seems to me some rotation out of Monkes into Puppets. Of all the NFTs out there it appears ordinals are the hottest right now, with most collections up 15-30% in the last day or so.
Find all of our charts on Degenz.Finance and make sure to subscribe to the Mando Minutes Newsletter at mandominutes.com for even more news on the Macro, Crypto and NFT landscapes:
GL out there today!