gm
**MACRO** - Yesterday was pretty interesting stocks bounced off their daily lows to end the day higher while interest rates saw a decent rally with 10Y now back down to 4.35%. There certainly is the slightest bit of possibility that the market has gotten too "hawked up" given the recent barrage of strong economic data and thus we could be set for some relief today depending on the inflation number. Last month we saw 3.2% on headline inflation and 3.8% on core inflation; the expectation this time round is 3.4% and 3.7%, so the market does expect headline inflation to rise. With all the data we've had YTD you would think that perhaps the market is prepared for something big once again and thus maybe elements of it are priced in; but I'm not going to try and second guess here and we will just have to see when it comes.
**CRYPTO** - Feels like the painful chop continues in this channel for crypto as BTC hovers around 69K and ETH just above 3500. Yesterday's ETF data was a bit meh with there being a net outflow of around $19m with just GBTC and IBIT really posting any meaningful volumes. It's frustrating because I think we are all waiting for that breakout yet every time we get close it simply gets rejected. Solana's ongoing issues are also really not helping with the price having now drifted lower to 170. We are 10 days away from the halving now but I don't really view that to be a material event; I think it's just sort of going to "happen" and we'll move on. Taking a step back and observing the price action for the last 2 weeks it feels like we're set to chop in a 10% range until something more meaningful changes the game. ETH ETF could be one of them (particularly for alts), and I think getting towards the end of GBTC outflows could be the other. GBTC still owns 323k BTC, about $22bn, so it's a lot of wood to chop still.
**NFTs** - It's hard to not note the surge in activity of XCOPY NFTs. We saw a 1/1 sell for 550ETH the other day, about $1.9m while his older limited editions have been flying off the shelves. This is not to mention the rise in Max Pain, an open edition from 2022, as more of that supply gets burnt. We also saw a large zombie punk sale as well as an autoglyph sale. I think it's a stretch to say ALL ETH NFTs are coming back, but it certainly does feel like we are seeing some sort of a revival here which is good to see and my guess is we see it continue in the higher end of the market for now.
GL today!