The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
gm
**MACRO** - Meh day for stocks yesterday but today we see futures in the green with SPX up 0.2% and NDQ up 0.4%. Interest rates also seem to be headed in the right direction which is nice to see with 10Y back below 4%, down to 3.98%. Nothing more to add here other than tomorrow will be a big day with inflation.
**CRYPTO** - In my short 2.5 years of being in crypto yesterday was the most mental fucking day I've ever seen in my life. As you probably know by now the SEC X account was compromised and there was a fake tweet announcing the approval of the ETF. We saw BTC breach 48K before it got sold back down very quickly all the way down to 45K and it looks like we've settled at around 45.7K. Despite yesterday, the word on the street is that we should see an approval coming at 4PM EST today...let's see. The main thing that's been interesting about yesterday's move is the huge outperformance of ETH vs everything else. ETH/BTC swung from about 0.048 all the way up to 0.053 at time of writing - that's a pretty aggressive move. I'll repeat what I've been saying for what feels like a few months now, once the BTC ETF is done, people will focus on and rotate capital to ETH for its upcoming application. It seems so obvious, but I think it's almost "too obvious" and thus people have been focused elsewhere, and rightly so as there's been so much money to make elsewhere. But I think you cannot just write off ETH here and the potential capital inflow it's about to see. I think ETH beta and memes will also participate. L2s are strong, in particular ARB is leading the way having broken a $20bn FDV. $PEPE is up about 20% from yesterday's lows which I think is probably the leading meme on ETH. Interestingly other alts have lagged and have tracked BTC, so it's truly an outperformance of the whole market by ETH, not just BTC. Curious to see if that is something that continues.
**NFTs** - ETH NFTs are NOT participating in the rally however with things down a further 2-3% across the board. I'm not sure if/when we'll see them come back in vogue, we prob just need a more sustained rally in ETH I think. On Solana, Froganas continue their brutal descent, dropping by a further 27% to a floor price of 5.5SOL, now down 65% on the week. Elsewhere Saga Monkes appear to be the big winner having doubled last night, while everything else is kind of mixed. Ordinals generally looks trong although Nodemonkes continue their fall down a further 10% to 0.17BTC...that's a good 30-40% off recent highs now. It feels like all that capital has gone into Bitcoin Puppets which are up to 0.035BTC, up 22% yday and 250% on the week. Feels like hot potato to me, very clearly capital switching from one project to the other.
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GL today!