The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
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**MACRO** - The final day of importance in this macro marathon will see the FOMC convene for its final presser of the year as well as announcing its interest rate decision. I think the strong consensus is for the Fed Funds rate to remain constant, and as usual, what will be more important is what JPOW says at the press conference. Data-wise we had a strong payrolls number coupled with inflation dropping vs last month, these are very encouraging. I think if we had a weak payrolls number there may have been some hope and expectation of a more dovish presser but it feels unlikely we will get that. My guess is we get something neutral, something along the lines of inflation is headed in the right direction but there are still medium term concerns, the economy is starting to weaken but remains robust, and some communication about potential rate cuts next year which will be data dependent. I don't think risk assets will move majorly on this but who knows. Powell has been known to come in overly hawkish more often than not over the past 18 months and even though I don't think he has an incentive to do so this time, you can't write it off. Stocks continue to grind higher as we breach new YTD highs and the stage, imo, seems to be set for new ATHs next year.
**CRYPTO** - The breakdown in correlation between crypto and macro continues as crypto loses a bit of steam once again with BTC at 41.3k and ETH at 2180. BTC dominance continues to drift lower and we are now at 53.2% as alts such as SOL, AVAX and INJ remain strong with a lot of capital there ready to buy dips it feels. We are now 28 days away until 10th January, when the SEC must rule on Ark's BTC ETF application, and indeed the market expects the SEC to rule on all of them. That's really not a lot of time and as we have taken a bit of a breather here in crypto, I believe we will have at least one more rally between now and then, it's just a question of if we fall further or not and I think the next dip (if it happens from current levels) will certainly be for buying.
**NFTs** - We continue to see some more downwards price action with things about 5-10% lower as Pudgy Penguins still dominate the volume charts. In terms of larger sales we saw an Archetype (Art Blocks) sell for 55ETH - AB has definitely been very quiet in the past few weeks and doesn't seem to have participated in the pfp really; indeed we've actually seen people sell a lot of generative art to chase pfps. Don't really have much more to add on the NFT front tbh, it does feel like things have taken a breather now as crypto has stabilised, I would love to get some more exposure to the NFT market but it's hard to judge what to buy at this stage.
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GL today!