The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
gm @everyone
**MACRO** - Yet again nothing really to report macrowise. Equities are seeing some more green this morning but the moves have been small in comparison to the sell off we saw last week. What is fascinating is that interest rates are experiencing a pretty decent rally ahead of the conclusion of the FOMC today with 10Y in particular ratcheting about 10bps lower to 4.83% while 2Y remains sturdy at 5.04%. The market expects the Fed to hold the base interest rate the same (ie not hike) and anything other than that would mark quite a big surprise. In terms of commentary, we would love to see something along the lines of "inflation is headed in the right direction" but I think JPOW more likely to focus on how the labour market is still very strong. Inevitably there will be probing questions on when we can expect rate cuts and I think the answer to that is probably next year but not any time soon. I don't expect much in the way of market price action this afternoon but never say never.
**CRYPTO** - We saw a nice surge this morning where BTC hit 35k and ETH 1830 before receding back to 34.6K and 1803 respectively. The SOL pump continues as it climbs to a price of almost $40 today. I'm seeing A LOT of traditional media articles/headlines which all seem to be bullish crypto now. Crazy high price predictions etc and I think it's doing a good job in getting more outsiders into our market. It's obviously being led by BTC right now but we are getting closer and closer to the point where I think that changes and people start exploring ETH and alts. Raoul Pal had some good commentary yesterday on how once the BTC ETFs have passed the next focus will be on ETH ETFs and that's when I think ETH will really shine. It's pretty insane that the entry point for that trade is a YTD 30% underperformance of ETH vs BTC, I find it tough to think that won't correct into ETH ETFs. Elsewhere in the alt world RLB is a super strong performer up another 25% to hit new ATHs. There is plenty of action across many alts right now and it feels good to see this market revived.
**NFTs & Misc** - Would you believe it, NFTs are up in price once again with BAYC climbing to 31ETH on good volumes but most other collections rising 3-5% alongside the rise in ETH. My explanation here is that crypto-native people want to be risk-on right now. If you're chasing a 100x for the next bull you have to look at NFTs or low market cap alts as these are the things that can have potentially crazy gains, and many of them are sitting at low prices or market caps so it feels like maybe it's a good bet. I've long thought it will take a few months after crypto rallies to see it in NFTs but I could well be wrong and the price action thus far is promising. I truly hope we are over the worst there.
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GL today!