Market Update: Wed 24th July
ETH ETF sees day 1 inflows
gm
**MACRO** - A weak day for equities yesterday saw SPX and NDQ close 0.2-0.4% lower, while futures are not looking great this morning down about 0.7%-0.9%. This comes after TSLA reported earnings after the close missing some estimates and closing 7% lower post market yesterday. I haven't talked about interest rates much recently and that's because they've been incredibly stable in the past few months, a stark contrast to what we saw in 2022/23. 10Y hovers around 4.24% still and I think we will need to see some more concrete dovishness from the Fed before that can move meaningfully lower. This Friday we get PCE data and then tomorrow is a big week with FOMC/payrolls.
**CRYPTO** - Struggled to get off the ground this week tbh and price action has been quite disappointing/frustrating for me, I definitely expected more. As it stands BTC is at 66.3K and ETH at 3450; I suppose if you consider where we were a couple of weeks ago things do look good and we all need to zoom out once in a while. Yesterday we saw the ETH ETF launch which resulted in a $107m net inflow into ETH ETFs and that's with a $484m outflow from ETHE, so on the whole I think that was actually a pretty good result. The key here really is not the first day but the days to come; if you recall, it took a few days for BTC ETFs to get off the ground and start mounting inflows. If you see $1bn of inflows for ETH in the next 2-3 weeks I find it difficult to think that's not going to have a decent impact on price and momentum. Elsewhere it sounds like Kamala Harris squad has been invited to speak at Bitcoin Nashville; curious to see if they accept or not, CT is rife with chatter of bipartisan crypto support which would be wildly positive, but I don't think she has made the decision yet as to whether she is speaking or not. For me the big catalyst this week has always been Trump at BTC conf on Sunday but you probably have to bake in some "sell the rumour" effect...stilll....if he does officially announce plans to make BTC a strategic reserve I find it hard to think we don't rally materially off of that...it's just a question of IF he says something like that or not, we don't know yet.
GL today