Market Update: Wed 27th Sep
The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
gm
**MACRO** - Futures are green to start the day today up 0.2-0.3% on SPX and NDQ. Interest rates continue their rally...kind of confirms my hunch the other day that positioning there is short and tbh I wouldn't be surprised to see 2Y drop back below 5% in the next couple of weeks especially if labour market data continues to be weak. 2Y is at 5.09% at the moment. The thing that is of most concern to me at the moment is the price of oil which has now shot up to $93, the highest price we've seen for a year and it's a trend that feels like it's going to continue to persist and be a problem on the inflation front (although at least this time we should see it offset by shelter).
**CRYPTO** - Kind of crazy price action in the last 24H. We saw BTC pump to about 26.8K and ETH to as high as 1630 which held for a bit, and then we ssubsequently saw a big red candle down to 26.2K and 1600 levels. Today, Gary Gensler is testifying before the House Financial Services Committee amid all the various legal cases that hang over the SEC. Although it doesn't appear as if we've seen any official comments from it yet, maybe there's something that leaked which has caused the recent dump. It's also worth noting the SEC delayed ARK's spot BTC ETF application yesterday which was a weird move because the next deadline for that was actually 11th November. The finaly deadline for that application is actually 10th January, which is a good couple of months sooner than Blackrock, Fidelity and co...but it's a weird decision to pre-emptively delay ARK and not the others, which actually have sooner interim deadlines (mostly mid next month). Maybe we're finally in for some volatility here.
**NFTs** - The biggest news of yesterday is Pudgy Penguins who's toys will now be stocked across 2000 different Walmart stores nationwide in the US. I think this is a fantastic example of an NFT project putting to use its brand and IP and actually managed to generate real revenue and cashflow without directly dumping/selling more NFTs to its holders. If Pudgy Penguins can become a massive global toy brand, I think it will drive "collector" value to the original NFTs and indeed we saw a 10% move yesterday which takes the floor price of Pengus to over 5ETH. It's funny because it's really a simple idea, but Luca's vision has resulted in him outperforming like 95% of NFT founders because he has a real business idea and understands how to build value for his collectors rather than extract value. I think there's a lesson to be learnt there.
GL today!
p.s. look out for the Degenz Code competition very soon on our twitter.