The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
gm
**MACRO** - An OK day for equities yesterday saw stocks climb by 0.1% and 0.3% respectively on SPX and NDQ, while futures are up 0.3-0.4% this morning. It puts us pretty much at the highs of the year on both indices which feels like rather a pivotal moment. I've been talking about how the focus is going to soon switch to rate cuts and to be honest we've seen that over the last 24H after one of the Fed's most hawkish policy makers mades comments insinuating that rates could start to fall as the Fed was happy with the current policy and expects that inflation could soon get back to the target level of 2%. As a result we saw a massive move in interest rates with 2Y falling to 4.69% and 10Y falling to 4.29%, the lowest level we've seen since the beginning of September. It puts massive emphasis now on next week's payroll numbers, as well as CPI, as well as the final FOMC of the year which will set the tone for year-end positioning into 2024.
**CRYPTO** - Some renewed strength in crypto sees BTC once again clumb abote 38K with ETH back towards 2050. You could have done pretty well in the last few weeks trading that 37-38k range on BTC if you really wanted to and my expectation is we continue to sit in such a range until ETF approval. Yesterday the SEC made further delays for Grayscale and Hashdex who's next deadlines weren't until 1st January, so that increases the probability that we will get a round of bulk decisions on or close to 10th Jan. Part of me wonders that if we get a low inflation print and a dovish Fed if we see crypto move on that; the correlation to macro this year has been very low, but imo that would signal a big change in sentiment for risk assets and it's an environment where I think crypto should rally. We will see over the next few weeks.
**NFTs** - No real big moves yesterday with NFTs kind of ticking along normally on quiet volumes. It seems like degen focus right now is in airdrop farming with $BLAST and $PORTAL taking the cake atm. Larger NFT sales continue to be punks with more mid tiers trading, but other than that it's been pretty quiet. It has truly been a year of metas and we haven't really seen a major NFT meta for at least 6 months now, but there have been signs of revival and I think we will see stuff pick up again next year.
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GL today!