The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
gm
**MACRO** - After a tough day for equities yesterday futures are once again opening in the red to the tune of about 0.3-0.4%, while interest rates continue to leak higher. In particular, 10Y is back to 3.97%, threatening to once again breach a 4 handle having traded as low as 3.78% towards the end of last month. It's been a lacklustre start for equities but it's also worth noting that last year we saw a 25% return in the S&P500 which is the 3rd biggest return ever, so it perhaps is only natural for us to see a bit more of a chilled start this year. Today we get ISM manufacturing PMI which is expected to come in at 47.1 vs last month's 46.7 -- if this number comes lower than consensus I would expect to see an interest rate rally. I think all these economic data points are very important now going forward. We also get the FOMC minutes today although as usual I don't expect anything crazy form that.
**CRYPTO** - A bit of a pullback this morning after we saw some good strength yesterday as BTC has pulled back to 44.4K and ETH to 2338. We have a week left until the final ETF deadline but of course we could get an announcement at literally any moment in between now and then. I would note that funding still remains high although it has alleviated from the highs of last week. As things stand I'm still feeling like we'll get a rally on announcement, it does still feel like there are some ounces of doubt out there! Elsewhere in altcoins most things seem to be struggling a bit with the price action lower on majors. In particular, it's a grim day for Solana shitcoins which are all down to the tune of about 50% or so in the past 24H. Actually in the time I'm taking to write this section BTC seems to be experiencing a rather nasty red candle which puts it just above 44k...not sure what's going on there, maybe we see some headlines soon...update...the red candle has progressed lower down to 43.3k lol....42.5k...gotta love crypto..let's hope it's just a wipeout of leverage. Another Update as we hit 41.4k having dropped to 40.9...it looks like there is some research out there suggesting that the SEC could potentially reject spot ETFs again to approve them later in the year: https://www.matrixport.com/institutions/research/matrix-on-target/813. Wow...things are certainly spicy to start the year!
This is why you gotta be careful of leverage here!
GL!