The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
gm
MACRO - So last Friday we had payrolls which came in at 236K vs 239K expected, while wage inflation was 4.2% vs 4.3% expected. It's the first time in what feels like ages that payrolls has come in below expectations, but tbh, the market did not have the reaction I was expecting. We saw interest rates sell off, with 2Y now back to 4% from last week's lows of around 3.7%, and equities are in the red this morning, down 0.7% on SPX and 1.3% on NDQ. So Yeah...IDK what to say really...I honestly would have expected us to rally on that but maybe some of those expectations were baked in. This week the data continues as we have CPI on 12th April, the expectation for which is 5.2%, a big drop from last month's 6%. If we do hit that number, optically that is a far cry from the highs of 9.1% we saw last year, but indeed the YoY comps get pretty easy around this time of the year, and I think what's more relevant for the medium to long term is what happens next year. Regardless, I think if we hit 5.2% or below the market should rally, but once again given the recent equity rally maybe some of these expectations are baked in. The next FOMC will be on 2-3 May so we will have some good datapoints to assess before then.
CRYPTO - Definitely some volatile price action over the weekend as we saw a big wick lower, only to get bought up pretty quickly. As it stands BTC is at 28.3K and ETH is at 1850 and personally I think it's nice to see some stability form around these levels which are up 70% and 55% YTD on BTC and ETH respectively. Altcoin price action looks kinda meh here to me with things a touch softer. Of course, we have the Shanghai upgrade on Wednesday (same day as CPI lol) and there are a lot of diverging views as to what happens there. I'm still in the cap we rally after it, but we'll find out soon enough.
NFTs - Another low volume day on Blur with just $49m trading but the platform continuing to maintain a large majority market share of 60%. Floor prices are mixed, we saw a resurgence in Nakamigos and it's impressive to see them maintain a 0.8ETH floor, being placed 4th on the volume charts. Elsewhere GMoney's Admit One has been a big winner with the FP up 100% to an FP of 4.2ETH. We saw a spike in Rektguy volumes yesterday which was accompanied with a 7% reduction in FP as whales dumped into Blur bids - similar can be said for a handful of few other projects out there and my read of it is that people are generally trying to free up liquidity to chase the next shiny new thing. This week we have NFT NYC so always be on the alert for any alpha that comes out of it. If you're gonna be here make sure you grab tickets (there are a few left) for The Rekt Show NYC on Weds 12th: https://tokenproof.xyz/event/rektshow-nyc ...looking forward to seeing everyone!
GL this week
Thanks for the update fan