The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
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MACRO - Equities had a soft close on Friday ending the day down 0.3-0.4% on SPX and NDQ, with futures opening another 0.2-0.3% lower. Friday's payrolls number actually came in BELOW consensus, 209k vs 225k which I think was a relief for markets...tbh I would have expected a bit of a relief rally on that number and although we didn't get it in equities we definitely got it in interest rates as 2Y collapsed all the way back to 4.9% having been as high as 5.1% earlier in the week. On Wednesday we're gonna once again get CPI, and it looks like consensus for inflation is 3.1% vs last month's 4%. Once again, my initial thoughts there are that is a lot of room to miss...but if we do hit 3.1% gotta think the market rallies a bit. The biggest question IMO is what this number does next few months as we get to a point where comps get more challenging. I would expect a lot of vol around this number and we do have the FOMC at the end of the month for which I think people are pretty scared for.
CRYPTO - Well BTC has managed to cling onto 30K over the weekend but price action certainly feels a little soft, while ETH is hovering around at 1861. The thing is we've had a pretty decent risk off move in altcoins overnight with most things down about 10-15%. This takes BTC dominance a notch higher to 51.5% while the ETH/BTC ratio remains unchanged at 0.062. There is an element here of the market clinging onto ETF hopes and headlines and it's starting to get a little quieter there, although I do also think we've regained some correlation to macro given last week's events. IMO crypto will move with macro this week with the big inflation number coming up on Tuesday, and also with the FOMC later this month. The difference here is that the market seems to have been wrong about interest rates and there is a real risk of higher rates for longer time which maybe hasn't been priced in to crypto's surge this year. With BTC dominance still rather high it's tempting for me to throw a little more at favourite alts here into Wednesday's number as a gamble if the number comes good.
NFTs - A decent bit of activity overnight with a 217ETH hoodie punk sale alongside a 71 and 75ETH Fidenza sale which has taken that floor price up 32% to 92ETH. In fact, if you check out the numbers in this tweet here, it's rather interesting to see a significant outperformance of gen art vs pfps in the last 30 days:
https://twitter.com/osf_rekt/status/1678342775027236865?s=20
I think that's a trend that will continue if I'm being honest, it doesn't mean pfps won't go higher but I think in the next bull run you'll see some of these culture-defining art projects do very well because that's what whales want to buy and it's a real narrative that can be spun to potential new investors/buyers. Despire that the pfp market continues to stage a relatively decent recovery with BAYC climbing to 33ETH, DeGods back to 8.8ETH and Azuki back to 7ETH. It's impressive to see it and it certainly does feel like we've seen somewhat of a bottom here; communities don't just die overnight and we can always be surprised at the resilience of humans.
GL today!