The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
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MACRO - A slightly soft day for equities yesterday saw the SPX and NDQ end down 0.5% and 0.7% respectively, with futures opening a small amount lower again this morning. Interest rates have been selling off ahead of today's CPI number and we're now back to the local highs on 2Y rates at 4.05%. Consensus for inflation is 5%, vs last month's 5%. We saw a pretty decent drop the last couple of months and it appears to be evening out for this month. Core is expected to fall to 5.5% vs 5.6% last month. I'll repeat what I have been saying this week in that I have some concern that if the number comes worse than expected we could have a risk asset sell-off as the Fed is sort of out of ammo IMO to keep raising rates. If we come in line or lower I'm not sure what happens, maybe we get a small rally but I feel that gets faded; market feels like it wants to sell strength at the moment. I just don't have a great idea of positioning and it does feel like people have derisked ahead of summer, which could result in bullish price action if it's not the expected outcome.
CRYPTO - Just hanging in there rn on BTC and ETH which are at 27.6K and 1840 respectively. I think CPI will be interesting today for crypto, and IMO you have quite a few narratives that are bullish for BTC. If it comes in ahead of expectations you're in a predicament where inflation is going higher and the Fed needs to raise rates, which could kill more banks which is bullish for BTC...or....the Fed could choose to maintain rates while inflation rises which is bullish for BTC.....or.....the Fed has power to cut rates if inflation continues to go lower which is bullish for risk assets and crypto as a whole. I'm struggling to see what the negative scenario is here for crypto; I suppose a BIG miss on CPI could spook markets and risk assets initially, but I think crypto rebounds from that. So given the recent technical sell-off, it's gonna be interesting to see what happens here.
NFTs - It seems like 20-40M daily volume is the new norm here while Blur continues to maintain a 50-60% market share. Price action is rather mixed but I would note that most things seem to be trending lower, in particular if you look at the Yuga complex MAYC is down to 10E, BAYC down to 45E and Otherdeed down to 1E. I read a stat from LuckyTrader the other day which stated recently there were only like 3-4K active NFT traders at the moment, which is seriously insane. It's kinda grim out there and tbh shitcoins are still taking up most of the attention space but one thing I would say is it does feel like they've brought more people into the space as I can tell from various social metrics. A couple of bright spots out there...Pudgy Penguins announced a $9m raise led by 1KX, while AlphaCentauriKid finally dropped his Broken Keys collection which comprises a collection of 48 unique pieces set for 24H auctions, some of which are already as high as 15ETH. GL out there today!
NOTE:
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Please see this tweet:
https://twitter.com/DegenzNFT/status/1649084188971130881?s=20
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