The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
gm
MACRO - A quiet start this morning sees future opening mostly unchanged. Interest rates seem to be on a path higher which I am somewhat confused with given the "good" inflation data we've seen recently but I suppose it tells you that the majority of the big move lower there happened due to the mini banking crisis and given we've had no further developments there rates seem to want to continue their path higher back to where we were pre SVB. Data-wise we have most of the big data out of the way now so we're entering that typical 2-week lull period before it all kicks off again with payrolls. IMO the market has a propensity to grind higher here in periods of no news but we'll see.
CRYPTO - Some lovely weekend price action saw BTC hit 30.8K and ETH hit 2130...it does seem that ETH wants to continue to outperform with the Shanghai upgrade now out of the way. We've since given back a lot of those gains, particularly in BTC which has fallen back to 29.5K while ETH has remarkably stayed put at 2080. That puts the ETH/BTC ratio to 0.07 which is up about 8% in the space of a week (ie ETH has outperformed BTC by 8%). I'm still a believer that ETH outperforms BTC significantly in the long run, but of course there are plenty of headwinds to that view such as potential SEC action. Altcoins experienced some love before retreating with BTC; many on Twitter are calling for an alt season to start once again and tbh we've kind of seen the start of it as BTC dominance has dropped from 49% to 46.8% as BTC has rallied. I'm more cautious there; it's not that I don't believe in it but I personally just don't want to risk losing money on shitcoins at this point so I'm not gonna play in that game.
NFTs - It really felt like a moment of capitulation over the weekend with floor prices very depressed across the board and a BAYC whale j1mmy.eth selling a bunch of mid-tier apes at the floor (as that's where there was liquidity) for tax purposes. I think many are faced with big tax bills for last year and a decent chunk of that has come from not accounting for airdrops correctly and thus accruing fiat tax liabilities on illiquid NFTs that have dropped in price. Despite all my doom talk here I do think NFTs are getting much closer to being a good buy. Problem is, with ETH having its ascent, most clearly would rather be in ETH rn than NFTs...more likely to go up and more liquid to be able to monetise and I think that's the mindset of many. As such, it doesn't make me love NFTs that people generally deem to be "flippable" which is basically most pfp projects that are utility/hype driven where people are trying to trade them into the next big hype factor. It does make me love grail-type/art/culture NFTs because that's the stuff people want to own forever and I think present good buys. If you are someone who has spare liquidity you are in a position of power, and I do think it's worth putting some low bids on stuff to see what hits.
GL out there this week!
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