The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
gm @everyone
MACRO - We saw a small rebound in equities yesterday with stocks ending the day up 0.8% and 0.9% respectively on SPX and NDQ. Interest rates had a heavy day yesterday but we have come off recent highs with 10Y currently sitting at 4.03%. The narrative of inflation being "stickier" than we thought is certainly now in full force. I think the point to mention here is that I still expect inflation to come down for the remainder of 2023, but it's what happens in 2024 and onwards that is concerning. I think the other point to mention is that inflation + high interest rates and markets rallying don't have to be mutually exclusive; we could just find ourselves in a different economic environment. However, admittedly, low interest rates are what have turbo charged risk assets for many years now and without that it's tough to see the similar "up only" vibes we've seen in the past.
CRYPTO - We had a big dump yesterday which saw BTC and ETH wick down to 22k and 1540 respectively, and both have settled about 2% higher than those levels. Altcoins really got decimated once again moving about 10-15% lower across the board. This move comes after shares in Silvergate (a crypto-focused bank) dropped more than 50% on concerns for its ability to survive in the aftermath of FTX stuff. I think/feel like this is somewhat of a known quantity and it seems like the plunge may have been caused by Silvergate liquidating assets:
. Naturally these sorts of actions can cause the market to panic and we've talked about how at current levels there is some possible downside to crypto given the YTD moves - you can see how something like this can cause panic in what is a turbulent macro environment. Personally I'm still looking at 1200 to buy ETH again - idk if we get there, I doubt it tbh, but that's my level to add more risk (and frankly it's times like this I'm appreciative of my strategy in sticking to buy low and not FOMOing pumps because there's a lot of stuff you could have done your bollocks on by now).
NFTs - $100m of volume yesterday of which Blur's market share ticked up to 76% from what feels like a running average of 70%. Uh oh. Most NFT projects look like they're down about 3-5% on solid farming volumes. I just think this is the new normal and it's going to be like this for a while. My prediction is we see this for the rest of the year as Blur tries to quash competitors and capture market share. It's interesting to actually see some floor prices move higher, eg rektguy. Been trying to work out what the mechanics are there because at first I was like, you probably need net buyers but I think what's actually happening is people are scrambling over themselves to be best bid to farm because you get more points on more liquid collections. Therefore, I think more volume = higher likelihood of price increase, and then someone will do a big dump and we reset lower and the cycle starts again. I think rektguy is actually one of the best assets to farm on - it's just a piece of art where the value is not predicated by roadmap delivery, so as an underlying asset people are sort of fine to own it. It's why it also does a shit load of lending volume on NFTFi too. Kinda cool.
GL today!