The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
gm
MACRO - Stocks are opening a small amount lower this morning after a weak day yesterday, down 0.2% and 0.7% respectively on SPX and NDQ. Interest rates have seen a pretty decent sell-off actually which puts 10Y now at 3.7%, the highest it's been YTD. Worth noting that oil has rallied almost back to $80 on Russia communicating an output cut. Elsewhere there's not really much more to write home about here other than we're just a couple of days away now from the next CPI number. As it stands it looks like consensus is 5.8% vs 6.5% last month, and the consensus for core inflation is 5.3% vs 5.7% last month (note the compression in the overall and core numbers we've seen over the past few months). Given the huge forecast decline it does worry me that there's room there for disappointment. Given the last payrolls number there's definitely a lot of pressure on next week's CPI so here's hoping it comes in line or lower.
CRYPTO - We saw a pretty substantial sell-off yesterday with BTC dropping to 21.8K and ETH to 1545. Altcoins have been hit the hardest with many dropping as much as 25% at one stage but it does look like we're seeing a small recovery in the last hour or so. The weakness comes after Kraken agreed to discontinue its crypto staking programme and pay $30m to complete a settlement with the SEC. The allegations come with regard to Kraken selling "staking services" and marketing it as an "easy-to-use platform". IMO you're always meant to fade regulatory FUD in crypto and it feels like a good entry to add some risk. In particular, if there are altcoins you like the look of that stuff is down pretty big so there could be some interesting things there.
NFTs - Total volume yesterday was 280M in the market which is a large number, but I think the OpenSea numbers are including Blur so it feels like a bit of double counting there. Floor price action is pretty grim with most things down 5-10% in the last 24H and I think that's because most people have probably stopped farming $BLUR for the airdrop. Gotta think someone is holding the bag here after all that volume. The question will be if $BLUR has any real value and if market participants choose to plough it back into NFTs. Fortunately we only have two more days to wait and it indeed makes valentine's day a pretty big one.
GL today and have a great weekend
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