The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
gm
MACRO - Equities had a very strong day yesterday as SPX rose 1.33% and NDQ 2%. It takes us back close to the YTD highs we saw in February and that's despite the SVB and CS stuff that happened in between; truly quite remarkable and certainly a thorn in the side for those who shorted that dip (at least for now). Interest rates sold off a little bit yesterday which now puts the curve at 398/351/346/371bps across 2/5/10/30y. The "no news is good news" narrative played out and really this rebound was similar to that of what happened post FTX, lots of people calling for contagion and corresponding blood which just never really materialised, but I'm not waving the victory flag yet as of course we've seen all too often that things can change very quickly. Yesterday we had PPI which came in at 2.7% vs 3% expectations, and vs 4.9% last month. That is yet another datapoint which shows significant signs of inflation slowing, and it seems that while we had that moment of things evening out, we are continuing our path downwards for now. I still believe that comps get easier for the next 2-3 months.
CRYPTO - The rally continues as BTC hit 30.7K and ETH continues to outperform, currently sitting at a whopping level of 2115. Honestly, it's quite nice to see some positive price action this year. I've been writing these recaps for almost 1.5 years now and anyone who's been reading for that long will remember that most of it was commentating on the crypto decline and crash of last year. Although my advocation was for DCAing, I def started it way too early although I continued all the way down to 900 on ETH and most of last year was basically catching falling knives and just averaging lower/taking MTM losses and it felt pretty grim after we had 12 weeks of consecutive crypto declines. However, with the price action this year that proved to be a winning strategy, although not the most optimal one, it's once again proven if you mechanically construct yourself to buy at lows and accumulate in bear markets (with the most important thing being here is never needing to stop out), you will eventually come good when things turn around and you don't have to worry about FOMOing into ETH at 2100 or w/e because you spent the whole of the last year staying disciplined and accumulating. I think a lot of people fall over here because they want to make a quick buck and have no patience, but honestly having this strategy gives you an extremely high probability of success and it's one I will continue to advocate. Altcoins are also very strong here and we're now at that point where we could well have the start of another alt run, particularly given ETH's performance. Notable moves in the last couple of days include SOL, ARB and even APE. Side note - I wrote this tweet thread in July 2022 after the crash...pretty amazing how accurate it's turned out to be..worth a read:
https://twitter.com/osf_rekt/status/1547884028342071298?s=20
NFTs - Well, of course the big news is that of Franklin getting scammed out of 2k ETH which in turn resulted in him having to liquidate many assets, and thus cratering the BAYC floor to 55ETH. It's worth noting that while that number seems pretty bad in ETH terms, in USD terms it's still >$100k an ape which isn't really a huge drop at all and certainly an outperformance vs other NFT projects over the last few weeks. I think rising ETH here will cause NFTs to fall further, especially given the weak technicals, but it def impacts the higher end (we also saw some low Fidenza sales a couple of days ago, including one as low as 82k USDC. Still feels like more pain to come for NFTs to me, just a question of where we are supposed to step in.
GL today and touch some grass!