The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
gm
MACRO - Macro just keeps ripping aggressively; we saw SPX close yet another 0.85% higher yesterday and NDQ another 1.73% higher. Remember, equities currently sit at YTD highs so each day we move higher is making a new YTD high at the moment. An astonishing fact is that SPX is now just 6-7% off its ALL-TIME-HIGH which is pretty crazy, but I suppose why not. This time last year the world was panicking about the devastating effects of high interest rates and the daunting prospect of surging inflation, but the reality is we lived and are living through it without having adversely impacted the US economy. There are certainly still risks, but given how bearish and negative most of the world are we're at a point where things weren't as bad as people feared and people are getting bought into the market. It's impressive to see equities hold their gains this morning with futures marginally higher and interest rates staying strong. I do still feel the FOMC could be a downer on the recent momentum tho.
CRYPTO - The big news is that XRP has been ruled as NOT a security which is massive for all of crypto and potentially even more bullish than the ETF news. It also means the case against Coinbase is materially weaker and as such we saw $COIN rally 25% yesterday to a price of 107, the highest it's been in 12 months. Although the case will still go to trial, this is a massive massive win for crypto, in particular ETH and other alts which previously sold off on risk of being defined as securities. We saw BTC dominance rise to 52% on all the various SEC headlines but yesterday there was a sharp rally in alts which caused BTC dominance to drop to 50%. IMO we have a lot further to fall; dominance was at 44% in March - this means we should see a fairly aggressive alt rally which further adds to what I've been talking about for the last few days, and we're starting to see it play out. As it stands BTC is 31.2K and ETH 1998 but we did see levels of 31.5K and 2010 overnight. The ETH/BTC ratio has climbed to 0.064 but I would expect that to climb further towards 0.07. To conclude, forgetting the macro bullish narrative we ALREADY have, yesterday as a massive surprise positive piece of information that was not priced in and may well be the catalyst we needed to send us materially higher. I think we are seeing more signs that we are ready for a big bull cycle, and I really hope so because if you've been reading these newsletters for a while you'll know it's been a long 12 months of DCAing through the depths of a bear to build a strong position and be ready for the big moves when they happen, adding in a bit of extra moonshot risk at the right time. So here's hoping.
NFTs - Price action is a little bit lower which is expected with the rally in ETH but I do think it's rather impressive to see Punks hold a 50ETH floor and I think they have the best shot at acting as "levered ETH". We saw a massive BAYC sale yesterday of 600ETH for a gold ape, and we also saw a 145ETH Azuki sale - so there is plenty of activity goin gon in NFTs at the moment which is also rather pleasing to see amid a big crypto rally. IMO the short-term effects of rising ETH usually means NFTs lower, but with a great big rally you'll see the wealth effect take over and people want to start spending more on NFTs and only then will we see the start of the NFT cycle. It's pretty clear NFTs are lagged - they took longer to crash in 2022 (they crashed this year) and they will take longer to bounce back. It does mean there are probably some great buys out there but you have to have conviction and be right as it's harder to pick projects (imagine trying to pick altcoins).
GL this weekend!
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