The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
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MACRO - It was a tough day for equities yesterday as stocks fell 2.5% on SPX and 3.4% on NDQ. Futures are opening lower once again this morning; by about 1% on both. Interestingly interest rates haven't really moved that much and it appears that market is somewhat disagreeing with Powell's claims of there being no planned rate cuts in 2023. The curve currently sits at 426/365/350/354bps. It seems to me Powell has achieved his ambition of keeping a lid on stocks, but the market still seems to refuse to believe what he is communicating or simply disagreeing with his view of 2023. As I said yesterday, it's a foregone conclusion that inflation comes lower next year (barring geopolitical tension which admittedly is always a reasonable risk), but it would seem that the market has bigger fears of economic weakness and its potential depth next year. I don't think we get any major macro datapoint now for the rest of this year, and would expect things to start to get very quiet very soon as we head into the festive period.
CRYPTO - BTC down to 17K and ETH down to almost 1200, some pretty big moves lower there in the last 24H as the macro weakness starts to eat into crypto. Altcoins look like they're down 10% or so across the board and amazingly it seems like $APE is holding up better than others. I still feel constructive on crypto given its huge underperformance in Q4 but it's tough for it to stage any meaningful rally with a JPOW dampener like that. IMO if we drift lower it will prove to be another buying opportunity and DCAing is the best strategy there. I've held at 1K on ETH for a while to start DCAing but I think I may revise that upwards to 1100 to actually have a chance of being able to get some risk on.
NFTs - Another quietish day of volumes that has seen many NFT projects lose some ground. In particular, Valhalla is back down to a floor of 0.9E, which is about 60% off from this week's highs, while ETH has also dropped like 7% in that time period. That's gotta be pretty brutal for anyone who FOMO'd into that. Cool Cats seem to have staged a recovery climbing 20% to a floor of 2.5E, I think there are ongoing rumours of an acquisition there in some form but tbh I'm not sure that's necessarily bullish. The higher-end bluechips like Punks & Apes continue to be relatively stable here.
Think that's it for this week - GL and touch some grass!
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